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Fig. 5.8
not coincide with the peak in mosquito degree-days. Also note that the standing
water peak does not coincide with the temperature peak in Illinois.
When running the model, we adjusted the HIRate Coef (Human Infection Rate
Coefficient) and the BIRateCoef (Bird Infection Rate Coefficient) until we achieved
an approximation of the infection rates over a 30-year period. While we could find
30-year periods where the model gave a reasonable approximation of the infection
rate data, results from subsequent runs of the same model over the same period
varied greatly, ranging from very few infections to a death rate exceeding 1,000.
These results give us pause as to the effectiveness of the model and the possibility
that the state has yet to experience its worst outbreak.
5.2 Questions and Tasks
1. One aspect of human behavior that is not included in the model is the fact that
the state's Public Health Department has an effective warning/publicity policy.
When an infection such as St. Louis encephalitis or West Nile virus begins early
in the year, residents are continually warned about the dangers, and many modify
their behavior to avoid mosquitoes. Include an early warning system in the model
and re-run it. Interpret your results.
2. In the model created for this chapter, we assume that most mosquito-transmitted
diseases will eventually become endemic in the population of birds and humans.
However, we are interested in the short-term seasonal epidemics that may occur
and what temporal control possibilities are feasible for prevention of epidemics
in the human population. We think that this model is a good start in that direction.
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