Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
a growing inability of the nation to feed itself (about half of Egypt's food is now imported). Perhaps
it could be argued that one of the first signs of competent governance is effective population policy.
For the sake of any national policy maker who may be reading this essay, here are a few take-
home bullet points that summarize most of the advice that can be gleaned from our scenario exer-
cise:
• Guarantee the basics of existence to the general public for as long as possible.
• At the same time, promote local production of essential goods, strengthen local social intercon-
nectivity, and shore up local economies.
• Promote environmental protection and resource conservation, reducing reliance on fossil fuels in
every way possible.
• Stabilize population levels.
• Foster sound governance (especially in terms of participation and transparency).
• Provide universal education in practical skills (gardening, cooking, bicycle repair, sewing, etc.)
as well as in basic academic subjects (reading, math, science, critical thinking, and history). And
finally,
• Don't be evil—that is, don't succumb to the temptation to deploy military tactics against your
own people as you feel your grip on power slipping; the process of decentralization is inexorable,
so plan to facilitate it.
One wonders how many big-government centralists of the left, right, or center—who often see the
stability of the state, the status of their own careers, and the ultimate good of the people as being
virtually identical—are likely to embrace such a prescription.
Final Thoughts
To reiterate the theme of this essay one last time: The decline in resources available to support so-
cietal complexity will generate a centrifugal force that will break up existing economic and govern-
mental power structures everywhere. As a result there is a fight brewing—a protracted and intense
one, impacting most if not all countries—over access to a shrinking economic pie. It will manifest
not only as competition
among
nations but also as conflicts
within
nations, between power elites
and the increasingly impoverished masses.
History teaches us at least as much as scenario exercises can. The convergence of debt bubbles,
economic contraction, and extreme inequality is hardly unique to our historical moment. A particu-
larly instructive and fateful previous instance occurred in France in the late 18th century. The result
then was the French Revolution, which rid the common people of the burden of supporting an ar-
rogant, entrenched aristocracy, while giving birth to ideals of liberty, equality, and universal broth-
erhood. However, the revolution also brought with it war, despotism, mass executions—and an utter
under economic contraction double down on militarism rather than downsizing their armies so as
to free up resources. They go to war, hoping thereby both to win spoils and to give mobs of angry
young men a target for their frustrations other than their own government. The gambit seldom suc-
ceeds; Napoleon made it work for a while, but not long. France and (most of) its people did survive
the tumult. But then, at the dawn of the 19th century, Europe was on the cusp of another revolu-
tion—the fossil-fueled Industrial Revolution—and decades of economic growth shimmered on the
