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horizon. Today we are just starting our long slide down the decline side of the fossil fuel supply
curve. Will we handle the inevitable social conflicts more wisely than the French did? Will we learn
from history?
Sometimes historic social conflict has taken the form of right-wing groups fighting to oppose
and overthrow left-democratic national governments (Germany in the 1920s), sometimes as leftist
groups battling center-right or far-right governments (Nicaragua in the 1960s and '70s). There is
plenty of potential for both brands of conflict within today's countries, which vary greatly in terms
of their likely trajectories. (If you're a mobile global citizen who has the luxury of choosing a coun-
try of residence, perhaps this essay can help in assessing your prospects.)
Thinking in big-picture terms is useful for those who have access to information and time for
reflection; it provides a sense of perspective and a potential for more effective action. For those of
us who sit, Arjuna-like, before the battlefield of the 21st century, the question presents itself: What
is our appropriate role? Shall we engage in conflict? Or would it be better to prevent, resolve, or
avoid it? Differing circumstances and personal temperaments will lead to differing answers. If this
essay were a polemic, it might incite readers to resist and oppose those wielding centralized politic-
al and economic power. But that is not my purpose here; rather, it is merely to survey the landscape
of conflict so as to see where the points of leverage may lie. It is up to readers to do with this very
rudimentary analysis what they will.
If the premise and scenarios outlined above are even vaguely accurate, then localism will sooner
or later be our fate and our strategy for survival. It seems fairly clear that, whatever our stance
regarding conflict, efforts spent now to learn practical skills, become more self-reliant, and form
bonds of trust with neighbors will pay off in the long run.
— FEBRUARY 2012
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