Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Fig. 2.15
Evaluation on
energy-savings from major
actions during the 11th FYP
Energy-savings for 11 th FYP
340
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
150
80
Backwards Production
Capacity Elimination
10 Energy-saving
Energy-saving Actions
Projects
of key enterprises
2.3.1 Status of Domestic Carbon Emissions
Although carbon intensity was not covered in the 11th FYP, Beijing has issued a
carbon intensity target for 2020 at the Copenhagen Conference held in 2009 and
proposed a 17 % declining target for the 12th FYP this year.
It is essential to calculate and analyze carbon emissions, especially from 2005
since it is the base used to evaluate progress to combat climate change.
According to the National Communication on Climate Change of China and
other sources, total carbon emissions increased from 5.35 billion ton in 2005 to 7.26
billion tons in 2010.
The average growth rate of 6.3 % is much lower than the GDP growth rate of
11.2 % and slighter lower than energy consumption growth (6.6 %) for the 11th
FYP (see Fig.
2.16
). By contrast, the annual average growth rate of carbon
emissions reached its highest level, about 9.3 %, during the period of the 10th
FYP (2000-2005).
This reflects Chinese government efforts on carbon reductions.
From the contributions of carbon emission by sector in China, it is reported by
the National Communication on Climate Change that carbon emissions from fossil
fuel combustion were 72 % of total GHG emission in 1994.
The share increased to 93.9 % in 2005, among which energy production and
transformation processes contributed 46.5 %, the secondary industry including
manufacturing and construction sector contributed 38 %, and the rest came from
transportation, commercial and residential sectors (See Fig.
2.17
).
2.3.2 Methodology on Analysis of Carbon Emissions
The Kaya Identity, which was developed by Japanese energy economist, Yoichi
Kaya, in 1990, has been widely used for analyzing and forecasting major factors
that affect carbon emissions.
