Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 1.12
Change of energy intensity of major energy consuming industries
Annual change of energy intensity (%)
1995 ~ 2000 2000 ~ 2005 2005 ~ 2007
Industry
7.34
0.11
2.49
Coal mining and cleaning
0.82
10.59
4.67
Oil and gas extraction
7.68
4.86
2.86
Textile
8.54
4.38
1.15
Papermaking and paper products
8.85
0.10
6.64
Oil Processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing
1.18
2.93
5.26
Chemical raw material and chemicals
8.30
1.21
4.58
Non-metal mineral products
4.89
2.05
6.79
Black metal smelting and rolling
3.53
4.18
1.26
Nonferrous metal smelting and rolling
3.20
3.14
0.35
Production and supply of power and heat
4.00
1.38
3.36
Key energy consumption industries
2.20
Unimportant energy consumption industries
8.60
1.77
2.67
Source:
China Energy Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook
and calculation of Xuan
Xiaowei
6.43
0.01
becoming high income countries shows that they went through a complete
industrialization process, with the industrialization rate (industrial output/
GDP) rising first, reaching a peak value, and then falling. It is demonstrated
that the industrialization of developed capitalist countries reached their peak
value in the 1960s, at an absolute level of about 44 %, with GDP per capita of
8,000 dollars (Geary-Khamis Dollar). China's current GDP per capita is 6,725
dollars (Geary-Khamis Dollar of 1990), and industrialization is 42.1 %. Based
on the international experience, China's industrialization will continue and last
for years. Thus, keeping other factors constant (energy structure and energy
intensity value constant), the changing industrial structure will result in the
increase of energy intensity and carbon emissions across the country [
3
].
3. Restraint on Energy Intensity during the 12th Five-Year Plan
Looking upon the history of the past 30 years, the increase of sectoral energy
efficiency, especially the energy intensity reduction of key energy consumption
enterprises, has been the decisive factor.
Table
1.12
shows that the energy intensity in key energy consuming
industries fell by 6.43 % during the 9th Five-Year Plan, while the 10th Five-
Year Plan saw a mixed picture of rising and falling, with only a 0.01 % decrease
overall. During the 11th Five-Year Plan, the intensity again returned to a falling
curve, with an annual reduction of 2.2 %. Hence, the target of a 16.03 %
reduction of energy intensity in the coming 5 years is a tough and heavy burden.
4. Intensity Change of Carbon Emissions during the 12th Five-Year Plan
According to the above change of energy structure and intensity, the future
change of carbon emission intensity in China can be calculated.
The calculation in Table
1.13
indicates that if the share of non-fossil energy
in the energy structure can rise to 11.4 % as the 12th Five-Year Plan expects,
the CO
2
emission intensity will drop by 5.1 % at the same time. However,
