Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 1.11
Non-fossil energy share and annual change
Year
Share of non-fossil energy (%)
1990
5.1
2000
6.4
2005
6.8
2009
7.8
2015 (target of the 12th Five-Year Plan)
11.4
2020 (plan target)
15
Annual change
1990 ~ 2009 0.14
2000 ~ 2005 (the 10th Five-Year Plan) 0.08
2005 ~ 2009 (the 11th Five-Year Plan) 0.25
2009 ~ 2015 (the 12th Five-Year Plan) 0.60
2015 ~ 2020 (the 13th Five-Year Plan) 0.72
2005 ~ 2020 0.55
Source:
China Statistical Yearbook
and calculation of Xuan Xiaowei
increased 0.08 percentage points during the 10th Five-Year Plan, but the
increase accelerated during the 11th Five-Year Plan, with an annual rise of
0.25 percentage point (Table
1.11
).
If the proportion of non-fossil energy is to rise to 15 % in 2020, the proportion
has to increase by 0.55 % points each year from 2005 to 2020. However, it only
rose by 0.25 percentage points in the last 4 years (2005-2009). This means the
proportion has to rise by 0.65 % per year during the rest of time (2009 ~ 2020).
To reach the target, the government is making ambitious plans. During the 12th
Five-Year Plan, it is expected that the share of hydropower and nuclear power
will be raised by 1.5 %, and other non-hydro renewable resources by 1.8 %. This
can increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption of primary energy to
11 % in 2015. Meanwhile, the share of natural gas in the structure will rise
conspicuously, from 3.9 % in 2009 to 8.5 % in 2015 according to expectations,
while the share of coal will decline from 70.4 % to 63 %.
7
Despite the rapid development of renewable resource in recent years, the
development of current renewable and substitute resources still face major
restraints and the relevant technology has key bottlenecks. All in all, the future
development of renewable and substitute resources is uncertain to some degree.
The recent Fukushima nuclear event makes a difference and introduces
uncertainties in the rapid development of China's nuclear power. Therefore, it
will be really challenging for China to raise the non-fossil energy share by a
large amount to reach the target of 11.4 %.
2. Industrial Structure Change during the 12th Five-Year Plan
The changing industrial structure will strongly impact China's future carbon
emissions. The industrialization history of developed countries as they were
