FOOD SECURITY - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 40

Box 1. Assessing rice demand in Asia *

Population ageing is not only a phenomenon of the Western world, but is spreading rapidly in
Asia. The ageing of Japan's population is well-known; China experiences rapid ageing due to
its effective one child policy enforced in the 1970s; many more Asian countries will face the
ageing phenomenon due to increasing urbanization and welfare. By the year 2025, the share
of the population over 60 years in the ten most populous rice-eating/-consuming Asian
countries will increase by 15% (i.e., about 500 million people). On average, people above 60
years of age consume 15-20% less food energy per capita than the average adult in the
population (Smil 2000). If this estimate is correct, it would reduce the 2025 demand by about
2% compared to the current age structure. A reduction in activity level, because of continuing
mechanization (as a consequence of increasing industrialization and expansion of the
service sector) is estimated to reduce food demand by another 2%.

Dietary changes are expected to affect rice demand in two directions:

(i) In spite of progress in eliminating malnutrition, FAO estimated the total number of

malnourished people at the end of last century at around 800 million (FAO 2002).
About 480 million of these lived in the world's ten most populous rice-eating countries
- with India counting some 230 million undernourished people and China 120 million.
We may well assume that there will be at least a partial reduction in the number of
undernourished people in Asia. If we assume that elimination of malnourishment
requires increases in average food intakes by 25% and that reduction of
malnourishment follows the trend of the 1990s, this results in an increased rice
demand by about 4% in the year 2025.

(ii) Future dietary trends are likely to be country-specific; however, industrialized
countries, such as Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries, show a general
decline in average per capita rice consumption with rising economic performance.
Every tripling of purchasing-power parity-adjusted (PPP-adjusted) per capita GDP
(Gross Domestic Product) appears to be accompanied by a 50 kg decline in average
annual per capita rice consumption (Smil 2005). Based on conservative estimates on
future economic growth (1.5% per year) in the ten most populous rice-eating
countries, that will result in a demand by the year 2025, 20% below the level for an
unchanged dietary pattern.

Taking into account all these (correction) factors, for 2025 we arrive at an overall increase in
rice demand of the order of 16%. This is far below earlier projections of the required increase
that were of the order of 30-40% (e.g., Khush 2005). This is also less than the increases in
global rice production achieved in the past 25 years (next section). Hence, the primary aim of
future rice production should be to maintain or slightly increase existing yields at lower
environmental costs (e.g. through increased nitrogen-use efficiency) on the highly productive
rice lands, and to reduce the large yield gaps in rainfed rice environments.

* Source: Smil (2005) Feeding the world: How much more rice do we need?