Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
changes are taking place both in the pattern of demand and the type of food.
Recently, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) explored food
supply and demand scenarios for 2015 and 2050 using the IMPACT model (Von
Braun et al. 2005). Three major scenarios were distinguished:
Progressive policy actions scenario;
Policy failure scenario; and
Technology and Natural Resource Management failure scenario.
(1) The progressive policy actions scenario assumes increased investment in rural
development, health, education and agricultural research and development. Results
indicate that this would lead to a substantial reduction in hunger and in the number
of food-insecure people. Latin America and China could eliminate child malnutrition
by 2050. Improved technologies and better infrastructure are major factors stimulating
increases in crop yields and average incomes in developing countries.
(2) The policy failure scenario assumes greater political discord and more extensive
agricultural protectionism, in conjunction with the failure of policies to deal with
food emergencies related to conflict. Slow economic growth and trade restrictions
result in stagnation in average per capita energy availability - which remains just
above the minimum requirements until after 2030, when availability increases.
(3) The technology and natural resource management failure scenario shows the
worst results in terms of yield growth. This decline in yield growth forces farmers to
expand production to marginal lands, which causes a more rapid expansion of the
area cultivated with cereals into less productive land - which causes land degradation
and cannot compensate for yield shortfalls. Per capita energy availability for developing
countries is essentially unchanged and hardly remains at an adequate average level.
Child undernourishment is higher than under the policy failure scenario.
The factor contributing most to uncertainty: large shifts in demand, i.e., dietary
changes and needs in the developed and the developing world (Smil 2000; Council
of the European Union 2004, 2005).
As mentioned earlier, most of the people suffering from hunger are found in Asia
and Africa, foremost in India (220 million), China (142 million) and Sub-Saharan
Africa (204 million). In the following sub-sections, we, therefore, illustrate develop-
ments in supply for major cereals in those regions.
Rice production and yields in South, East, and South-east Asia
Rice production
Production in the main rice-producing countries in Asia has increased rapidly since
the early 1960s. Between 1961 and 1998, rice production has more than tripled in
China, Vietnam and Indonesia, with the strongest relative increase in Indonesia.
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