FOOD SECURITY - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 39

However, to estimate how much food is available, is not that easy (Smil 2000).
First of all, crop and livestock production data are wrought with many inaccuracies.
In establishing a country's food balance for a particular time period (in the form of
food balance sheets (FBS; FAO 1995), many assumptions and uncertainties on food
supply are introduced. Especially in low-income countries, significant supplies of
available food seem not to be accounted for, as found in comparative local and
regional assessments (Smil 2000). Food balance sheets do not provide data on actual
food consumption. Such information can only be obtained from detailed household
surveys. Smil (2000) concludes that for most of the low-income countries the
accuracy of estimating either food supply or actual intake is less than +/- 100 kcal a
day per capita.
Yield increases as realized in Europe during 1962-2002 may not be required,
if the developing countries will be able to maintain or increase yield growth.
Depending on the actual decline in cultivated area per capita, increase in yield
growth may well be necessary to compensate for losses of land to other uses.
Recently, Hossain (2007) has shown that this will be difficult for rice and wheat.
Regionally, production could stagnate or even fall. For instance, production statistics
for 2002 and 2003 have shown substantial declines in rice and wheat production in
China - illustrating that economic developments, combined with land scarcity (Lu
et al. 2007) may reverse production trends in some regions. Another example is the
increasing demand for maize by a rapidly growing bio-fuel industry, that recently
has led to declining supply for human consumption and considerable price increases
in, for instance, Mexico.
What is happening on the food demand side?
Adequate knowledge about the food demand side is essential for judging the effort
that will be required to increase yield and optimize resource use efficiencies. Factors
that co-determine potential food demand are: population growth rate, population
ageing and activity level, changes in diets and shifts in food consumption patterns.
Population growth estimates have been adapted in recent years on the basis of an
observed decline in fertilities. The median population projection for 2025 is 7.8
billion, compared to the present 6.4 billion; the high variant comes to 8.3 and the
low variant to 7.3 billion. For the year 2050, the central projection is around 9
billion (UN 2003). In Asia, the population will grow by 650 million people between
now and 2025, i.e., an annual growth rate of approximately 1%. An illustration of
adjusting food demand estimates is provided for rice in Asia by Smil (2005) (see,
Box 1).
FOOD SECURITY IN SELECTED REGIONS/COUNTRIES
Overview
In general, the total demand for food worldwide is expected to double in the next 50
years, with the highest increase coming from developing countries. In addition,