FOOD SECURITY - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 38

sustainable manner to meet higher food safety standards, environmental regulations
and consumer requirements.

The supply side

Hafner (2003) found for the major cereals (maize, rice, wheat) at global scale (based
on data from 188 nations) substantial growth in yields per unit area. For instance, the
40-year (1962-2002) average annual yield increases were 62 kg ha -1 for grain maize
and 43 kg ha -1 for wheat. In EU-25, the annual yield increase was even considerably
higher (Table 2) with 145 kg ha -1 for grain maize and 77 kg ha -1 for wheat. Also for
other crops, such as rapeseed, sugar beets and potatoes, yield increases were
enormous - whereby, obviously, it did not make a big difference whether 1962
levels were high or low. De Wit (1986) showed similar yield trends for the United
States and the UK after WWII.
Whether such crop yield increases are required and/or can be maintained in the
future will depend on various developments: future population growth, dietary
changes and consumer preferences, technological innovations and their diffusion,
food policies, education on health and nutrition, global economic development and
energy demand and their regional distribution, as well as the particular features of
regional climate change. Most of these factors are important in determining future
food demand (Smil 2000; IPCC 2001; Hossain 2007).

Table 2. Trends in yields (Mg ha -1 ) of five major crops for EU-25, EU-15 and selected countries
from 1962 to 2002 (source: FAOSTAT)

Year Wheat Grain

maize

Rape-
seed

Sugar
beets

Potatoes

Denmark 1962 4183 n.a. 2090 34389 18711

1982 6673 n.a. 2212 47017 35616

2002 7040 n.a. 2592 58362 39904

Germany 1962 3390 3232 1886 27485 22508

1982 5243 6572 2719 443415 21737

2002 6960 9376 2986 583246 40453

Spain 1962 1131 2141 n.a. 21118 10160

1982 1659 5570 731 35037 15435

2002 2824 9649 1594 70096 25993

EU-15 1962 2326 2249 1956 29998 18437

1982 4076 6188 2535 48861 23593

2002 5800 9193 3035 62069 36549

EU-25 1962 2252 2326 1737 28100 15947

1982 4007 6336 2366 44844 18965

2002 5353 8140 2782 58247 28298

Yield increase EU-25 3101 5814 1045 30147 12351

annual average increase 77.5 145.4 26.1 753.7 308.8