FOOD SECURITY - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 37

Philippines). It is estimated that worldwide already over 1 billion people suffer from
overweight, of which 300 million are classified as obese, among which 17.6 million
children under 5 years of age.

The double burden of nutrition
The 'double burden of nutrition' indicates the co-existence within one country, or
even one household, of malnutrition and over-nutrition: an overweight mother with
an underweight child is no longer uncommon. This situation is related to food
habits, lack of knowledge of appropriate food habits for various groups, and culture
or traditions. Moreover, 'fetal programming' may play a role, hypothesizing that a
fetus/ baby developing, in the last trimester of pregnancy and the first 3 months of
life, in a situation of relative food shortage is 'programmed' to survive on relatively
low supplies of energy. Should this individual go through a 'nutrition transition' in
the course of its life, the excess energy will more readily be deposited as fat than in
individuals programmed for a 'normal' energy balance. Hence, in countries where
malnutrition is prevalent, also in women of reproductive age, obesity and diet-
related non-communicable diseases can be expected to increase, should economic
development and/or urbanization cause a change in diets and lifestyle (Von Braun
2005).

CAN FOOD PRODUCTION KEEP PACE WITH POPULATION GROWTH ?

As a result of post-World War II agricultural policies, technology development and
implementation, especially in North America and Europe, and the 'Green Revo-
lution' in Asia (see Van Keulen 2007) we have seen striking successes in food
production at global scale (Smil 2000; Gilland 2002; Hafner 2003; Pingali et al.
2006):

• Food production has more than doubled since the 1950s;

• Food production per capita has grown;

• Energy intake per capita has grown in the last decades;

• Food prices have fallen (with some exceptions mainly in recent years - see,

e.g., Hossain (2007)).

Despite these impressive achievements in the past decades, the UN Millennium Task
Force on Hunger (2005) reports persistence of hunger in many developing countries.
Globally, still 800 to 850 million people suffer from chronic or acute hunger. The
lion's share of these people is found in Asia and Africa - foremost in India (220
million), China (142 million) and Sub-Saharan Africa (204 million). While in Asia
the absolute numbers of hungry people are high, their proportion is declining. The
situation in Africa is different: both, proportions and numbers of undernourished,
adults as well as children, are increasing. Total food demand will double within the
next 50 years, primarily in developing countries. The demand pattern and type of
food will change, i.e., increased demand for meat, dairy products and fish.
Increasingly, this food needs to be produced in an environmentally and socially