Future climate projections (Urban Climate Processes, Trends, and Projections) Part 2

Temperature projections for Delhi, India

Delhi, India, is one city where annual mean temperature is projected to increase over the next century. A slight upward, although not statistically significant, trend has been observed in the city from 1931 to 2005. This trend is consistent with trends from the region around Delhi in India. The region as a whole has experienced a warming trend over the past century, with the greatest warming occurring in the past three decades. The long-term warming trend appears to be driven by warmer maximum temperatures, while the more recent trend is a result of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures (Kothawale and Rupa Kumar, 2005).

Looking at Table 3.4, Delhi is projected to see an increase in annual mean temperature of between 2.5 and 4.5 °C by the 2080s. Figure 3.17 shows the full range of GCM projections for annual mean temperature for Delhi. Only around the 2030s do differences between the emissions scenarios emerge.

Table 3.4: GCM projections for temperature and precipitation.

Temperature3

Precipitation3

City Name

2020s

2050s

2080s

2020s

2050s

2080s

Athens

0.5 to 1.5 °C

1.0 to 4.0 °C

2.0 to 4.0 °C

-10 to +0%

-20 to -5%

-25 to -10%

Dakar

0.5 to 1.0 °C

1.0 to 2.0 °C

1.5 to 3.0 °C

-10 to +10%

-15 to +10%

-20 to +15%

Delhi

0.5 to 1.5 °C

1.5 to 2.5 °C

2.5 to 4.5 °C

-10 to +20%

-15 to +35%

-15 to +35%

Harare

0.5 to 1.5 °C

1.5 to 2.5 °C

2.0 to 4.0 °C

-10 to +5%

-10 to +5%

-15 to +5%

Kingston

0.5 to 1.0 °C

1.0 to 1.5 °C

1.5 to 2.5 °C

-10 to +5%

-25 to +0%

-30 to -5%

London

0.5 to 1.0 °C

1.0 to 2.0 °C

1.5 to 3.0 °C

-5 to +5%

-5 to +5%

-5 to +5%

Melbourne

0.5 to 1.0 °C

1.0 to 2.0 °C

1.5 to 3.0 °C

-10 to +5%

-15 to +0%

-20 to +0%

New York

1.0 to 1.5 °C

1.5 to 3.0 °C

2.0 to 4.0 °C

+0 to +5 %

+0 to +10%

+5 to +10%

Sao Paulo

0.5 to 1.0 °C

1.0 to 2.0 °C

1.5 to 3.5 °C

-5 to +5%

-5 to +5%

-10 to +5%

Shanghai

0.5 to 1.0 °C

1.5 to 2.5 °C

2.0 to 4.0 °C

-5 to +5%

+0 to +10%

+0 to +15%

Tokyo

0.5 to 1.0 °C

1.5 to 2.5 °C

2.0 to 4.0 °C

-5 to +5%

+0 to +5%

+0 to +10%

Toronto

1.0 to 1.5 °C

2.0 to 3.0 °C

2.5 to 5.0 °C

+0 to +5%

+0 to +10%

+0 to +15%

Shown is the central range (middle 67 percent) of values from model-based probabilities; temperatures ranges are rounded to the nearest half-degree and precipitation to the nearest 5 percent. a Based on 16 GCMs and three emissions scenarios.

Observed and projected temperature and precipitation. Combined observed (black line) and projected temperature and precipitation is shown. Projected model changes through time are applied to the observed historical data. The three thick lines (green, red, and blue) show the average for each emissions scenario across the 16 GCMs. Shading shows the central range. The bottom and top lines, respectively, show each year's minimum and maximum projections across the suite of simulations. A 10-year filter has been applied to the observed data and model output. The dotted area between represents the period that is not covered due to the smoothing procedure. WCRP, PCMDI, and observed data sources found in Table 3.2. Note differences in temperature and precipitation scales.

Figure 3.17: Observed and projected temperature and precipitation. Combined observed (black line) and projected temperature and precipitation is shown. Projected model changes through time are applied to the observed historical data. The three thick lines (green, red, and blue) show the average for each emissions scenario across the 16 GCMs. Shading shows the central range. The bottom and top lines, respectively, show each year’s minimum and maximum projections across the suite of simulations. A 10-year filter has been applied to the observed data and model output. The dotted area between represents the period that is not covered due to the smoothing procedure. WCRP, PCMDI, and observed data sources found in Table 3.2. Note differences in temperature and precipitation scales.

Observed and projected temperature and precipitation. Combined observed (black line) and projected temperature and precipitation is shown. Projected model changes through time are applied to the observed historical data. The three thick lines (green, red, and blue) show the average for each emissions scenario across the 16 GCMs. Shading shows the central range. The bottom and top lines, respectively, show each year's minimum and maximum projections across the suite of simulations. A 10-year filter has been applied to the observed data and model output. The dotted area between represents the period that is not covered due to the smoothing procedure. WCRP, PCMDI, and observed data sources found in Table 3.2. Note differences in temperature and precipitation scales.

Figure 3.17:

Observed and projected temperature and precipitation. Combined observed (black line) and projected temperature and precipitation is shown. Projected model changes through time are applied to the observed historical data. The three thick lines (green, red, and blue) show the average for each emissions scenario across the 16 GCMs. Shading shows the central range. The bottom and top lines, respectively, show each year's minimum and maximum projections across the suite of simulations. A 10-year filter has been applied to the observed data and model output. The dotted area between represents the period that is not covered due to the smoothing procedure. WCRP, PCMDI, and observed data sources found in Table 3.2. Note differences in temperature and precipitation scales.

Figure 3.17:

Observed and projected temperature and precipitation. Combined observed (black line) and projected temperature and precipitation is shown. Projected model changes through time are applied to the observed historical data. The three thick lines (green, red, and blue) show the average for each emissions scenario across the 16 GCMs. Shading shows the central range. The bottom and top lines, respectively, show each year's minimum and maximum projections across the suite of simulations. A 10-year filter has been applied to the observed data and model output. The dotted area between represents the period that is not covered due to the smoothing procedure. WCRP, PCMDI, and observed data sources found in Table 3.2. Note differences in temperature and precipitation scales.

Next post:

Previous post: