Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Another example of doubt is found in the area of migration trends. The German
Marshall Fund
nds that large-scale forced or distress migration related to environ-
mental change is likely to be
'
internal, regional, and temporary
'
.
57
The complexity of
migration makes it extremely di
cult, if not impossible, to single out the environ-
mental factors of displacement. This makes any estimate of the number of current
and potential environmentally induced migrants highly contestable. The Norwegian
Refugee Council warns of disingenuous political agendas exaggerating the spectre of
environmental migration for their own purposes.
58
Some writers suspect companies
of playing up the climate security agenda as a means of accessing
,
and political elites of wanting to fashion an institutional framework of global gov-
ernance that gives governments more power and negates local democracy.
59
Some experts insist that policy should focus on traditional energy security con-
cerns as attempts to broaden debate out to a climate-inclusive concept of security
simply produce a tangle of tenuous assertions that muddy policy calculations. They
question the easy assumption that energy security and climate change policies are
mutually reinforcing simply because renewables usage makes states more indepen-
dent. Rather, prioritising climate change goals can undermine other aspects of
energy security
'
green subsidies
'
increasing dependence on gas, renewable sources and nuclear
energy. Indeed, these experts fear that climate advocates now use the
-
'
security
threat
discourse as a means to push governments to adopt more green policies. So,
they infer, the disingenuousness runs both ways: the climate community is using
the security community, and vice versa.
60
Well-respected experts insist that the geopolitics of energy will continue to be
about the politics of oil and gas, not renewables or climate impact.
61
Some explicitly
advocate a prioritisation of energy security even at the cost of slower progress
on climate security
'
-
with energy and climate security seen as mutually exclusive
trade-o
s, not an integrated whole.
62
Many experts argue that the real game changer
is the discovery of shale gas. This has already largely eliminated the US
sdependence
on external hydrocarbon supplies. Since 2011 gas output has doubled, placing
downward pressure on prices. The geopolitics of energy is, many argue, increasingly
a question of the e
'
ects of a shift to shale gas, far more than of the prospective rise of
renewable sources. Access to shale gas will become the key dynamic from a security
perspective, not a search for independence based on renewables.
Conclusion
For at least two decades now, analysts, non-governmental organisations ( NGOs) and
international institutions have been warning that climate change is likely to have far-
reaching geopolitical e
ects. A wealth of predictions and data has accumulated point-
ing to the expected severity of extreme weather events, inter- and intra-state con
ict
