Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
the physical e
ects of climate change and then an assumption is
'
tagged on
'
that
security implications will inevitably follow.
47
Geo-strategic foresight exercises still struggle to incorporate climate change in a
systematic way: it is di
cult to predict geopolitical scenarios resulting from climate
change beyond o
ering general observations on which states will be physically
hardest hit by global warming.
48
One common line of argumentation is that cli-
mate change represents a serious challenge for the adaptability of individual and
community behaviour but should not be conceived as a macro-scale threat to
national security.
49
The mainstay critique has been that Western powers have begun to de
ne cli-
mate change as a standard security threat in military terms, when it is far from
being comparable to such challenges and consequentially risks being pursued in a
way that aggravates con
ict. Climate security is being de
ned as a series of threats
coming from the
'
periphery
'
to destabilise the Western
'
centre
'
in traditional hard
security fashion, when the danger is
less about
security than Western over-
consumption menacing the
'
periphery
'
. As a result, climate impacts are
'
not
ned.
50
Climatefactorsmayaddoneadditionalsourceofstressonalreadyfragilestates,
but it is not yet certain that they will trigger qualitatively new con
obviously a matter of
'
national security
'
as normally de
ict dynamics
in currently stable states; many of those states likely to face the more serious
e
.
51
ects actually have institutions with reasonably strong
'
adaptive capacity
'
According to this line of thought, climate will not directly cause con
ict but
merely intensify possible
, to the extent that it awakens
pre-existing tensions.
52
Collections of peer-reviewed studies exhibit very di
'
pathways for instability
'
er-
ent expert views on any causal link between climate change and con
at least
some of these experts suggest that framing climate change as a driver of con
ict
-
ict is
becoming a dangerously self-ful
lling prophecy, as governments militarise in
preparation for an eventuality that for the moment remains uncorroborated.
53
A
World Bank study has also cast doubt on any empirical link between climate
change and con
icts.
54
Sceptics are left asking whether militaries have stressed the
need for a security dimension to climate change mainly as a way of justifying
their own hold on scarce
nances.
55
More radical climate sceptics insist that con
ict is more likely to result from the
harsh economic sacri
ces imposed in the pursuit of ill-founded and arbitrary
emissions targets than from any climate change itself. Steps being taken in the name
of suppressing a misguided notion of climate con
ict in poor states actually
clash
with broader security interests. Claims that climate change represents a more ser-
ious threat than terrorism have, doubters say, percolated onto the agenda due to
the in
uence of powerfully placed environmentalists and not as a result of any
measured threat assessment.
56
