Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
security problems for the West. The post-2008 economic crisis has been a diversion
as it has turned European policy-makers
attention back on returning to growth by
any means possible. Planning for qualitative change to the economic model has
been relegated in importance. The plethora of
'
investments high-
lighted as part of stimulus packages is still based on increasing consumption. Critics
insist it is not possible to have growth without impacting the climate, and that
moreover climate change itself will reduce growth potential. From this perspective,
Europe
'
green growth
'
s crisis is not of the euro per se but of an unsustainable model of accumu-
lation.
3
Dieter Helm argues that dealing with the climate challenge must involve
lower rates of growth and qualitative change, not quick-
'
x returns to growth
through old-style Keynesian infrastructure projects. A carefully planned shift to low
carbon will take a long time and not generate signi
cant levels of employment or
growth immediately. To the extent that the crisis was the result of over-
consumption, it should engender demand for a new green model. Yet politicians
have debated the crisis only in terms of a binary choice between austerity and a
quick return to consumption-fuelled growth.
4
Simon Dalby makes the point that climate security is less a matter of
'
rural
squabbles
'
over resources that might tip into localised con
ict than it is of the
whole underpinnings of the global economy
something that as of mid-2013,
he laments, was still not taken into account by international policies. Indeed, the
increasing focus on
-
to hoard future resources risked igniting broader
instability, because of governments
'
land grabs
'
unduly narrow understanding of both adapta-
tion and environmental security.
5
Given increasing geo-economic competition for
resources, some analysts argue that the West
'
s support for market mechanisms will
damage its own security, as large quantities of exports will not
'
nd their way onto
the open market. Climate change will shift alliances in a way that will hasten
Europe
s international geo-economic marginalisation.
6
Writings on the post-crisis
global economic system suggest that zero-sum dynamics must prevail primarily
because of the future scarcity of
'
nite resources. The West gained control of
'
before it committed to liberal multilateralism; rising powers
cannot be expected to follow a di
enabling resources
'
ght hard for direct control
over diminishing natural resources. This means that the West
erent route and will
'
s relative decline
could easily tip over into an absolute impoverishment and strategic vulnerability.
7
An autumn 2013 Citi Bank report observes a new
'
energy Darwinism
'
as compe-
ed.
8
Others insist that precisely the need for innovation in the economic model
renders open and dynamic markets even more essential for economic security.
James Martin argues that the need for innovation in a context of future adaptive
complexity renders central planning unworkable and undesirable; governments
err in thinking climate change requires more dirigisme when in fact it needs quite
titive support for di
erent technologies has intensi
