Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
and help further distinguish emergence (the complex and potentially unexpected
interaction of biotic and abiotic elements) from statistics (uncertainty arising from
random noise).
3.8.2 Mesoscale Network Simulations
simulations above to simulate tree-ring widths across the southeastern United
States. They demonstrated that the leading principal component time series of sim-
ulated and real conifer chronologies is well correlated and that both reflect the
regional importance of spring rainfall for interannual variability in tree-ring widths
ing changes in climate/tree-ring growth relationships related to climate. Using the
eight simulations from the southeastern United States validated against the lead-
ing temporal pattern of variability in actual tree-ring chronologies, they hypothesize
that tree-ring growth should become increasingly limited by summer precipitation.
Model findings are verified by using a new tree-ring chronology, excluded from
a)
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
1
GAU
0.8
HCS
BWR
AIRY
KNOX
0.6
LAS
STAT
GOLD
MCH
KLY
SALS
BLK
0.4
LUMB
EBN
OCU
0.2
ALBY
ALT
QUIT
b)
c)
0
7
6°W
76°W
Fig. 3.6
Intercomparison of synthetic and actual tree-ring width chronologies from the southeast
United States. (
a
) Leading time series expansions from PCA on simulated and actual regional
ring width data (
black
and
gray lines
, respectively). Correlation fields between the spring (March-
April-May, MAM) precipitation and the first principal component for the (
b
) simulated and (
c
)
real tree-ring width chronologies for the full period of overlap (1920-1985). Four-letter identifiers
mark eight meteorological stations in (
b
); three-letter identifiers denote 10 ring width chronology
