The Effect of Early Flood Warnings on Mitigation and Recovery During the 2010 Pakistan Floods - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 243

13.3 Literature on Early Warnings and Mitigation Activity

The debate about the existence and effectiveness of warnings in Pakistan ties into
the broader literature on risk perception and mitigation behavior, and particularly
the response to various types of information sources, in the face of natural disasters.
Previous research by Dow and Cutter ( 1998 ) found that increasingly less formal and
private sources of information are taking precedence over formal and official warn-
ingsandinformation.Haydenetal.( 2007 ), using a survey methodology to study
which sources of information are most used and desired for flash flood warnings,
find that individuals are more likely to get information from TV and radio, rather
than official communication from government agencies, but that a siren warning
was perceived as most effective for flash floods.
In the USA, Meyer ( 2010 ) uses the laboratory setting of a computer-simulated
game to test participant responses to multiple sources of information about hurri-
cane preparedness, such as television broadcasts, Internet searches, and neighbor
conversations, and choices of investments such as retrofitting roofs or buying gen-
erators to mitigate impending hurricane damage. Meyer notes that, in natural set-
tings, the more salient information sources tend to be television and radio ads, as
well as conversations with friends and neighbors. Multiple reminders may be impor-
tant to encourage individuals to invest in mitigation activity. Whereas face-to-face
conversations with friends and neighbors can provide more salient reminders, they
cannot provide the same real-time accuracy of information available through remote
sources such as television and radio.
A framework of individual choice, as a combination of individual perceptions of
risk, mitigation costs and benefits, and mitigation abilities, is rooted in broader psy-
chologicalliterature.SuchaframeworkisexplainedbyBotzenetal.( 2013 ) in the
context of flood insurance choice and mitigation behaviors, and more generally
linked to the protection-motivation theory discussed by Rogers and Prentice-Dunn
( 1997 ), as a theory for individual choice of health behaviors. The psychological
literatureemphasizesthecombinedimportanceofperceivingrisk,beinginformed
of mitigation options, and being self-aware of own abilities to implement actions
(e.g., both physical strength and know-how to construct barriers to flood damage).
According to Lindell and Perry ( 2012 ), the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA)
modelsuggeststhatanindividual'sattituderegardingthehazardislesspredictiveof
mitigationthantheattitudetowardanactrelevanttothehazard.
Drobot and Parker ( 2007 ) point out that much work still needs to be done in
understanding how warnings and information translate to mitigation behavior. In
US survey data, Baker et al. ( 2012 ) find that, despite high levels of awareness of
major hurricane threat, there was widespread confusion about the nature of warn-
ings, and preparation was insufficient for the threat posed. Protective actions that
would be seen as costly were limited. For example, only 37 % of homeowners who
had purchased removable storm shutters put them up, and 54 % of residents whose
homes were within a block of a body of water indicated that they owned flood insur-
ance policies.