The Effect of Early Flood Warnings on Mitigation and Recovery During the 2010 Pakistan Floods - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 242

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) were not taken seriously by local gov-
ernment officials, media, and residents:
In the middle of July, the PMD began tracking a storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal [which
would] produce the massive rains and the subsequent super flood of 2010. On July 24, the
PMD issued a flood warning to the provincial government of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).
Despitetheseincreasinglyseverewarnings,KPK'scitizenrydidnotbelievethem.…The
PMDkeptissuingwarningstoKPKastherainsbegantofall…thePMD'swarningswent
unheeded.
Nevertheless,thePMDwascriticizedforfailingtopredicttheloodfullyorin
time. Arif Mehmood, the Director General of the PMD admitted that, while the
department was able to issue warnings 4 days in advance, it failed to predict the
extremity of the rain and flood waters (Vastag 2011 ). There were reports that an
international weather forecasting center, the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), had actually predicted extreme, unprecedented
rainfall10daysinadvance.However,thisinformationwasneverproperlyanalyzed
with attention to terrain to accurately establish the extent of floods expected (BBC
News 2011 ; Vastag 2011 ).
The warning system generally operates as follows. Flood warnings in Pakistan
are issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department to the Provincial Disaster
Management Authority (PDMA). The PDMA then formulates a disaster risk man-
agement plan and issues directives to the District Disaster Management Authority
(DDMA). The DDMA implements the district action plan, in line with the provin-
cial policies. Typically, this plan will include departmental dissemination of advance
warning, mitigation, and evacuation procedures to be followed. For instance, the
agriculture department will implement a plan for flood risk reduction that will
include raising awareness among the local farmers on disaster preparedness and
evacuation procedures. Similarly, the social welfare department will attempt to
mobilize their workforce to increase disaster awareness among the local popula-
tion. At the local level, flood warnings are issued through town and union council
members. Often this results in public announcements at the local mosques
(Provincial Disaster Management Authority 2008 ). Meanwhile, the PDMA also
issues warnings through national television and radio channels.
At the community level, a potential barrier to risk management is the generally
low disaster risk awareness in Pakistan. Usually, awareness and understanding are
higher in areas that have experienced floods in the past and were subsequently
involved in community level disaster risk management activities (National Disaster
Management Authority 2013 ), although risk knowledge may still be lower in the
females and children in these areas (Provincial Disaster Management Authority
2008 ; National Disaster Management Authority 2013 ). In Kyber Pakhtunkhwa, the
northern province of Pakistan, the PDMA reported the tendency of the population
to ignore the flood warnings, until the flood waters were visibly encroaching on
their communities (Provincial Disaster Management Authority 2012 ). The PDMA
also reports having insufficient technology to gauge the advancement of flood
waters and almost absent early warning systems for flash floods in vulnerable areas.