Introduction - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 2

The year 2013 began in the water for the Holmes family. Early in January, grandpar-
ents and grandchildren spent hours clinging to a jetty in Tasmania - immersing
themselves in the Ocean to escape bushfi res. 1 Such fi res destroyed at least 109 ha
and more than 200 buildings (NOAA 2013a ). Elsewhere in Australia, temperatures
were so high that the Bureau of Meteorology had to extend its weather map tem-
perature scale by adding a new color - purple - for extreme heat. In February,
Tropical Storm Haruna hit Mozambique and continued toward Madagascar, affect-
ing food security and agriculture in the region. In March, fl ash fl oods damaged 220
homes, destroyed crops, and displaced 1,200 people in Uganda (Levin 2013 ). New
Zealand saw the worst drought in 30 years resulting in a revenue loss of $820 mil-
lion USD and contributing to extreme food shortages (Levin 2013 ). In May, Tropical
Cyclone Mahasen created landfall in Bangladesh, affecting 1.3 million people and
destroying almost 50,000 homes (Levin 2013 ). In this same month, the widest tor-
nado ever recorded in US history hit Oklahoma, causing numerous deaths and dam-
aging homes. June brought extreme fl ash fl oods and landslides to Northern India,
killing over 1,000 people and leaving an equal number missing (Levin 2013 ).
Throughout July, drought continued in large parts of central and southern United
States, as well as in part of interior Alaska. Some areas have only received 35-65 %
of normal precipitation for the past two years (NOAA 2013b ). Yet more devastation
occurred on August 14, when fl ash fl oods hit Khartoum, Sudan, damaging 15,399
households, affecting 84,000 people (IFRC 2013a ).
These statistics refl ect merely a small sample of disasters over the past year.
Around the world, extreme weather events are becoming increasingly “normal.”
Indeed, observations since 1950 indicate increases in extreme weather events (IPCC
2011 ), and further increases are expected in the twenty-fi rst century as a result of
climate change. The 2011 IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC SREX) pre-
dicts rising wind speed of tropical cyclones, increasing intensity of droughts, and a
growing frequency of heat waves. A one-in-20 year “hottest day” event is likely to
occur every other year by the end of the twenty-fi rst century. Heavy precipitation
events are also on the rise, potentially impacting the frequency of fl oods and almost
certainly affecting landslides (IPCC 2011 ).
Hazards have signifi cant impacts on both human lives and national economies.
Between 1991 and 2005, 3,470 million people were affected by disasters globally, and
over 960,000 people died. During this time, economic losses from disasters totaled
US$ 1,193 billion (UNISDR 2008 ). Without signifi cant action, losses from extreme
weather are expected to continue to increase in future (IPCC 2012 ; Shepherd et al.
2013 ). The Overseas Development Institute (Shepherd et al. 2013 ) estimates that up to
325 million extremely poor will be living in the 49 hazard-prone countries in 2030. In
areas with limited social safety nets, lack of access to markets, capital, assets, or insur-
ance mechanisms, natural disasters have the potential to reverse development progress
and entrench poverty (Shepherd et al. 2013 ). Hsiang et al. ( 2013 ) even claim that
1 http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/may/26/firestorm-bushfire-dunalley-
holmes-family