Introduction - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 3

Fig. 1.1 Map demonstrating areas of food shortage in East Africa during the 2011 drought crisis.
Reduced rainfall periods in East Africa have been attributed to climate change (Lott et al. 2013 )
(Source: Modifi ed from UNHCR/USAID)
warmer temperatures and rainfall extremes can lead to substantial increases in confl ict
(with a 4 % median increase in interpersonal violence and 14 % median increase in
intergroup violence for each standard deviation change in climate toward warmer tem-
peratures or extreme rainfall). While these fi ndings may be debated, it is clear that cli-
mate change is already causing loss and damage (Warner et al. 2012 ). Lott et al. ( 2013 )
conclude that the failure of the 2011 spring rains in East Africa, which resulted in
widespread famine, was caused by a rise in sea surface temperature due to anthropo-
genic climate change (Fig. 1.1 ). Climate change impacts will be felt around the world.
As President Barack Obama told the United Nations (New York Times 2009 ):
No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact of climate
change. Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. More powerful storms and fl oods
threaten every continent. More frequent drought and crop failures breed hunger and confl ict
in places where hunger and confl ict already thrive. The security and stability of each nation
and all peoples…are in jeopardy.