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fundamental changes in the way the country is adapting to the increased risk of
fl ooding. It urged the UK government to show leadership and set out the process and
timescale for improving resilience in the UK (The Pitt Review
2010
). Following the
recommendations, the Environment Agency and the Met Offi ce have combined
their efforts and have established the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC)
5
to pool the
best possible intelligence and provide the best inputs to be used in the remainder of
the fl ood forecasting service. The Flood Forecasting Centre combines the meteoro-
logical forecast with assessing consequences and impacts to produce overview
guidance and products to the responding communities across England and Wales.
10.5.3
Flood Forecasting
Predicting when fl ooding will occur at a local level still remains the remit of the EA.
The Environment Agency has set itself a target to provide fl ood warnings at least
2 h before fl ooding (EA
2011a
). Traditionally, warning systems have relied upon
measured levels acting as a trigger. If set appropriately, these triggers can give some
lead time. With the development and use of forecasting models, the intention is to
extend the lead time and give more time to act on a warning.
Flood forecasting methods in various forms have been available since before the
Environment Agency took the responsibility for delivering fl ood warnings in 1996,
but have gained sophistication and accuracy with time. These forecasting methods
range from relatively simple techniques such as correlation of peak levels/fl ows
between different sites, to linked rainfall-runoff models with hydrological channel
routing models (Table
10.1
) (EA
2013a
; Whitfi eld
2005
).
10.5.4
National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS)
To use these forecasting techniques (Table
10.1
) operationally, the Environment
Agency commissioned the development of the National Flood Forecasting System
(NFFS). The NFFS uses a forecasting solution called Delft Flood Early Warning
System (Delft-FEWS) developed by Deltares
6
(Deltares
2008
), with help from
Tessella Scientifi c Software Solution (UK).
7
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