Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
not point to a straightforward answer. Some climate scientists believe
that the intensity of thunderstorms will increase, but this is still an open
question.
IMPACTS OF WARMING
There have been several assessments of the impact of global warm-
ing on hurricanes. As with rising sea levels, the physical effects can be
estimated using models, but the socioeconomic impacts will depend
upon how humans adapt to increased storm intensity and rising sea
levels. I have estimated that the impact of warming over the twenty-
fi rst century will lead to slightly more than a doubling of hurricane
damages in the United States if no measures are taken to reduce vul-
nerability. This would amount to around 0.08 percent of GDP, or about
$12 billion per year at current levels of output. This is not a substantial
fraction of total national output over the next century. However, the
impacts are highly localized and devastating to individual communi-
ties, as was seen when Hurricane Sandy hit the New Jersey and New
York region in 2012.
A careful study of the effects of global warming on hurricanes by
climate scientists and economists estimated the range of hurricane im-
pacts by country and region. Figure 19 shows the impacts by major re-
most vulnerable region, followed by North America (primarily the United
States). Some regions are negligibly affected (western Europe and South
America).
If we look at the country data (provided by the authors of the
study), this study projects less hurricane damage from global warming
than some other studies do. But the interesting fi nding is that some im-
portant countries may experience reduced damages from hurricanes in
a warmer world. For example, Bangladesh is estimated to experience
reduced hurricane damages. This paradoxical result occurs because
warming causes hurricane redistribution as well as intensifi cation.
Another interesting fi nding, which is parallel to the fi nding on sea-
level rise in Chapter 9, is that hurricane damages are only weakly cor-
related with affl uence. The United States is heavily affected, while the
