Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Impact of Variational Data
Assimilation for Simulating Tropical
Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Using
WRF-ARW
V. Yesubabu*, C.V. Srinivas
1
, K.B.R.R. Hari Prasad
1
and S.S.V.S. Ramakrishna
2
Computational Earth Sciences, Centre for Development of
Advanced Computing, Pune, India
1
Radiological Safety Division, Indira Gandhi Centre for
Atomic Research, Kalpakkam, India
2
Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra
University, Vishakhapatnam, India
*e-mail: yesubabuv@cdac.in
1. Introduction
Tropical cyclones, one of the most destructive of all the natural disasters, are
capable of causing loss of life and extensive damage to property. The Bay of
Bengal is a potentially energetic region for the development of cyclonic storms
and about 7% of the global annual tropical storms form over this region with
two cyclone seasons in a year. Tropical cyclones have great socio-economic
concern for the Indian subcontinent. Precise forecasting of tropical cyclone
intensity and track are important for the countries bordering the Bay of Bengal,
especially India, Bangladesh and Myanmar due to significant socio-economic
impact. There has been remarkable improvement in forecasting of the tropical
cyclones with the development of high resolution atmospheric models and the
global forecasting systems such as the National Centers for Environmental
Predictions (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS). Assimilation of available
observations has been considered to be very important for accurate description
of initial conditions in numerical models (Park and Zupanski, 2003; Navon,
2009; Pu et al., 2009). In particular, assimilation methods like variational
approach has the additional advantage of assimilating observations by satisfying
model dynamic and thermodynamic constraints through a set of independent
balance equations (in 3DVAR) (Courtier et al., 1998).
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