NWP Forecast Guidance during Phet at Oman Meteorological Service - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 229

green curve for COSMO 7 km and red curve for COSMO at 2.8 km. It can be
seen that the models were able to forecast the curvature of the track but at
lower latitude below Ras Al-Had at 2 nd June run. Both HRM and COSMO (2.8
km) forecast the cyclone to cross Masirah Island based on the 3 rd June run.
Even though the track forecast was not matching the best track on this model
run, the 24h forecast from HRM and COSMO (2.8 km) indicated the possibility
of the cyclone to make landfall near Al-Ashkhara at 00 UTC of June 4 th . After
the landfall, 4 th June run of HRM perfectly forecast the turning of cyclone,
while both COSMO 7 and 2.8 falsely alarmed deeply inland penetration before
the turning.
2.2.3 Precipitation
Figure 4(a) shows the total rain during the life of Phet as seen by TRRM.
Figures 4(b and c) show the predicted accumulated rain between 4-5 June
from both HRM and COSMO models. It can be seen that both models were
able to forecast the maximum amount of rain (350-400 mm) near Sur. The
predicted rain was shifted northwestward of the observed location. Both models
predicted spatially distributed maxima while the observed maxima was
localized.
Fig. 4: Total rain observed from TRRM and predicted 24h accumulated
rain during 4-5 June 2010.