Multi-model Ensemble Based Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 209

days 12-18 forecast (Fig. 6d). Thus, though the genesis of the system was
indicated in week 1 forecast valid for the period, 19-25 December the 12-18
days forecast valid for the period, 26 Dec-1 Jan, 2012 did not indicate the
intensification of the system. However, the MME forecast for days 5-11 based
on 22 nd initial condition and valid for 26 Dec-1 Jan, 2012 clearly indicate the
intensification of the system as seen from the mean wind and vorticity maximum
at 850 hPa (Fig. 6e-f).
Fig. 6: MME forecast weekly wind: (a) days 5-11 forecast valid for 19-25 Dec, 2011,
(b) days 12-18 forecast valid for 26 Dec-01 Jan, 2012, (c) and (d) same as 'a' and 'b'
but for relative vorticity (1 × 10 sec -1 ), (e) and (f) days 5-11 forecast based on 22 nd Dec
for mean wind and vorticity valid for 26 Dec-01 Jan, 2012.