Status and Plans for Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warning Systems in the North Indian Ocean Region - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 154

• Preparation of past and forecast tracks upto 120 hrs
• Depiction of uncertainty in track forecast
• Depiction of observed and forecast surface wind in different quadrants of
TC
All the available data and products from various national and international
sources were systematically considered for analysis and prediction of cyclones.
Various data and products utilized for this purpose are:
• Data and analysis products through digitized system as mentioned above
• Radar data and products from IMD's radar network and neighbouring
countries
• Satellite imageries and products from IMD and international centres
• Data, analysis and dynamical and statistical model products from various
national and international centres
Prediction Models in Operational Use
Models run in IMD/NCMRWF are:
• Global model IMD-GFS (T574), NCMRWF-GFS (T574), NCMRWF-GEFS
• Regional model (HWRF, WRF and QLM)
• Multi-model ensemble (MME)
• Dynamical statistical model for genesis and intensity prediction
• Climatology and persistence (CLIPER)
Model support from other institutes includes IIT Delhi WRF model.
International models used in IMD are:
•ECMWF
• UKMO
• JMA
• ARP-Tropics (Meteo-France)
• TIGGE products (EPS)
The GFS, adopted from National Centre for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP), at T574L64 (~25 km in horizontal) resolution (incorporating Grid
point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme as the global data assimilation for
the forecast up to seven days) has been implemented at IMD, New Delhi The
model is run twice in a day (00 UTC and 12 UTC). The real-time outputs are
made available to the national web site of IMD (www.imd.gov.in).
IMD operationally runs three regional models—WRFDA-
WRFARW(v3.2), HWRF and Quasi-Lagrangian Model (QLM)—for short-
range prediction during cyclone condition. The mesoscale forecast system
Weather Research and Forecast WRFDA (version 3.2) with 3DVAR data
assimilation is being operated daily twice to generate mesoscale analysis at 27
km and 9 km horizontal resolutions using IMD GFS-T574L64 analysis/forecast
as first guess. Using initial and boundary conditions from the WRFDA, the
WRF (ARW) is run for the forecast up to three days with double nested
configuration with horizontal resolution of 27 km and 9 km and 38 Eta levels