Status and Plans for Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warning Systems in the North Indian Ocean Region - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 153

• Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) are derived half hourly using Visible and IR
images from the operational Kalpana-1 satellite.
• Water Vapour Winds (WVWs) are derived half hourly using IR and Water
vapour images from the operational Kalpana-1 satellite.
• Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are computed at 1° × 1° grid intervals from
all Kalpana-I data on half hourly/daily/weekly/monthly basis.
• Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) are computed at 0.25° × 0.25° grid
intervals from all Kalpana-1 data on half hourly/daily/weekly/monthly basis.
• Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is generated at 1° × 1° grid
from Kalpana-1 imagery on half hourly/daily/weekly/monthly basis.
On 23 rd Sept 09, polar orbiting satellite OCEANSAT-II has been launched
by ISRO which carries a ku band pencil beam scatterometer to provide ocean
surface winds at 10 m height for early detection of tropical cyclones. Winds
from this satellite are used regularly for locating the centre and intensity of the
tropical systems in the formative stage.
4.2 Analysis and Forecasting
The cyclone forecasting aims at monitoring and providing information to the
public on (i) current location and intensity of the cyclone, (ii) forecasting the
intensity, direction and speed of the cyclone, (iii) time and location of landfall
and coastal areas likely to be affected by the gale force wind, (iv) estimated
height of tidal waves/storm surge and the part of the coast likely to be affected
by tidal waves/storm surge and (v) area to be affected by heavy/very heavy/
extreme rainfall (IMD, 2003). The cyclone analysis, prediction and decision-
making process is made by blending scientifically based conceptual models,
dynamical and statistical models, meteorological datasets, technology and
expertise. Conventional observational network, AWS, buoy and ship
observations, Doppler weather radars and satellites are used for this purpose.
Apart from the synoptic analysis, various climatological, statistical and
NWP models including IMD-GFS model and regional models like WRF, MME
and single model EPS are used for the above purpose. An example of track
forecast by EPS of global models is shown in Fig. 4.
A weather analysis and forecasting system in a digital environment is being
used to plot and analyse different weather parameters, satellite, radar and NWP
model products. In this hybrid system, synoptic method could be overlaid on
NWP models supported by modern graphical and GIS applications to produce:
• high quality analyses and
• ensemble of forecasts from NWP models at different scales—global, regional
and mesoscale.
The TC module installed in this forecasting system has the following
facilities:
• Analysis of all synoptic, satellite and NWP model products for genesis,
intensity and track monitoring and prediction