Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 18.
Discount rate.
Regional Effects of Carbon Prices on Deforestation
Sources of deforestation in the model are expansion of agriculture and buildup areas as
well as from unsustainable timber harvesting operations impairing sufficient reforesta-
tion. Deforestation results from many pressures, both local, and international. While
the more direct causes are rather well established as being agricultural expansion, in-
frastructure extension and wood extraction, indirect drivers of deforestation are made
up of a complex web of interlinked and place-specific factors. There is large spatially
differentiated heterogeneity of deforestation pressures. Within a forest-agriculture mo-
saic, forests are under high deforestation pressure unless they are on sites which are
less suitable for agriculture (swamp, slope, altitude). Closed forests at the frontier to
agriculture land are also under a high deforestation pressure while forest beyond this
frontier are under low pressure as long as they are badly attainable. The model was
build to capture such heterogeneity in deforestation pressures.
Figure 19 shows that the model predicts deforestation to continue at the frontier
to agricultural land and in areas which are easily accessible. Trans-frontier forests
are also predicted to be deforested due to their relative accessibility and agricultural
suitability. Forests in mosaic lands continue to be under strong pressure. Figure 20
illustrates the geography of carbon saved at a carbon tax of 12 US$/tC compared to
biomass lost through deforestation. Under this scenario deforestation is mainly occur-
ring in clusters, which are sometimes surrounded by forests (e.g., Central Africa) or
are concentrated along a line (Amazon). The geography of the remaining deforestation
pattern indicates that large areas are prevented from deforestation at the frontier by the
12 US$/tC tax. The remaining emissions from deforestation are explained mainly by
their accessibility and favorable agricultural suitability.
