Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
(Nelson. et. al.. 2008).. Private. landowners. will. need. to. consider. multiple,. perhaps.
competing.management.objectives,.given.that.most.private.landowners.need.to.reap.
some.economic.beneit.from.owning.land.(Firbank.2005;.Juutinen.2008).
Setting.management.objectives.is.the.irst.and.most.dificult.step.in.conservation.
delivery.. Climate. change. will. add. another. layer. of. complexity. to. an. already. difi-
cult.endeavor..The.conservation.targets.with.which.we.have.scientiic.and.manage-
rial.experience.are.changing;.this.will.have.ripple.effects.on.all.aspects.of.resource.
management..For.example,.many.resources.have.been.devoted.to.planning.for.the.
management.of.the.existing.protected.areas,.regardless.of.ownership..In.the.United.
States,.federal.agencies.must.follow.the.National.Environmental.Policy.Act.(NEPA).
and.consider.the.environmental.impacts.of.their.actions.and.reasonable.alternatives.
to.those.actions—a.fairly.lengthy.process..If.climate.change.brings.rapid.ecological.
change,. planning. documents. will. need. to. be. revisited. more. frequently. than. most.
agencies.are.prepared.to.do..Managers.will.also.be.challenged.by.the.need.to.engage.
in.multiple.management.strategies.for.which.the.conservation.community.has.had.
little. experience. or. success. (creation. of. landscape-scale. movement. and. dispersal.
corridors,.assisted.dispersal.of.native.species.to.avoid.extinctions,.and.species.triage).
(Millar.et.al..2007).
The.challenge.is.greater.than.it.has.ever.been.to.envision.a.desired.(valued).future.
condition.that.is.feasible,.ecologically.sustainable,.and.consistent.with.broad.agency.
directives. and. public. values.. Those. who. manage. land. all. or. in. part. for. conserva-
tion.purposes.are.facing.a.major.challenge.when.the.very.objectives.(conservation.
targets).for.which.we.manage.are.in.lux..We.need.tools.for.working.with.multistake-
holder.groups.to.redeine.management.objectives.and.for.managing.in.a.lexible.way.
that.accommodates.changes.in.objectives.over.time.(Brooke.2008).
MODELING THE FUTURE
Modeling. will. help. managers. envision. new. land-management. objectives. that. are.
congruent.with.a.changing.climate..Models.integrate.data.from.multiple.sources.to.
forecast.future.ecosystem.condition.and.how.that.may.translate.into.new.ecosystem.
and.community.assemblages.at.speciic.locations.(Galatowitsch.et.al..2009;.Nemani.
et. al.. 2009).. These. forecasts. will. be. used. to. assess. the. vulnerability. of. species.
and. ecosystems. for. the. purpose. of. setting. management. priorities.. As. temperature.
increases,.species.are.predicted.to.respond.by.moving.toward.the.poles.or.upslope.
in.mountainous.terrain.(Weiss.et.al..1993;.Zuckerberg.et.al..2009)..As.precipitation.
patterns.change,.some.species.will.ind.their.only.available.habitat.too.dry.during.
critical.life.stages.to.support.their.populations..Habitat.conditions.are.predicted.to.
change. too. rapidly. for. many. species. to. move,. even. if. suitable. habitat. is. available.
somewhere.else..For.many.rare.species,.we.do.not.know.precisely.what.constitutes.
suitable.habitat,.so.it.will.be.dificult.to.predict.whether.any.will.remain.(Scott.et.
al..2002)..As.populations.adjust.to.the.changing.climate,.some.species.will.beneit.
and.other.populations.will.decline;.conservation.priorities.will.need.to.be.updated.
at.a.rate.that.matches.these.changes..The.threat.of.climate.change.may.elevate.the.
conservation.priority.of.the.most-vulnerable.species.and.ecosystems.and.lower.the.
