Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
priority.of.the.least.vulnerable..The.most.vulnerable.may.demand.more.attention.and.
cooperation.among.a.wider.set.of.agencies.than.in.the.past.
Models. of. predicted. changes. in. temperature. and. precipitation. will. need. to. be.
translated. into. predicted. changes. in. species. assemblages. at. the. management-unit.
level.in.order.to.guide.the.setting.of.objectives.(Magness.et.al..2008);.however,.there.
is.great.uncertainty.associated.with.these.projections..Such.models.will.help.manag-
ers.think.about.possible.future.conditions.and.consider.what.the.appropriate.manage-
ment.responses.might.be..Managers.will.need.some.idea.of.how.climate.change.may.
affect.their. conservation. targets,. and. they.need. to. be. prepared.to. support. species'.
movements. across. the. landscape. as. species. track. favorable. habitats.. For. example,.
the.Refuge.System.has.161.coastal.refuges.with.approximately.0.4.million.ha.in.the.
contiguous.48.states.(Scott.et.al..2009)..Managers.need.to.identify.where.the.lowest-
elevation.saltmarshes.are.located.and.begin.immediately.to.plan.for.their.migration.
to.higher.ground.as.sea.level.rises.
There.are.many.kinds.of.models..Finding.the.most.eficient,.useful.modeling.
approach. for. any. particular. conservation. problem. combines. art. and. science,. in.
much.the.same.way.that.the.practice.of.medicine.provides.diagnoses.and.treat-
ments. for. a. wide. array. of. human. maladies.. Most. importantly,. modeling. in. a.
conservation.context.requires.modelers.and.managers.to.work.together,.each.con-
tributing.their.own.expertise.to.the.modeling.problem..These.modeler-manager.
partnerships.are.uncommon.today.but.will.be.required.in.the.future.as.climate.
change.puts.stronger.pressure.on.already.fragmented.and.degraded.ecosystems..
For.example,.the.need.for.triage.to.set.conservation.priorities.for.limited.resources.
will.demand.a.modeling.approach..Modeling.will.play.an.important.role.in.help-
ing. clarify. where. scarce. conservation. resources. should. be. spent. outside. of. the.
existing. conservation. estate.. This. involves. a. host. of. challenges,. including. col-
laborative. work. with. federal,. state,. and. local. governments,. nongovernmental.
organizations,. and. private. landowners.. Any. collaborative. project. that. involves.
many. people. is. a. sociological. challenge. that. requires. special. skills. to. achieve.
eficiency..The.conservation.community.will.need.to.improve.communication.to.
accommodate.these.new.needs.(Knight.et.al..2008).
The.FWS.recognizes.that.meeting.its.conservation.mission.in.the.face.of.climate.
change. will. require. a. coordinated. effort. involving. all. stakeholders. with. an. inter-
est.in.our.natural.heritage.of.ish.and.wildlife..The.FWS.has.issued.“Rising.to.the.
Challenge:. Strategic. Plan. for. Responding. to. Accelerating. Climate. Change”. and. a.
5-Year.Action.Plan.to.implement.the.Strategic.Plan.(US.Fish.and.Wildlife.Service.
2009)..The.plans.call.for.organizing.scientiic.units.called.Landscape.Conservation.
Cooperatives. (LCCs). to. provide. scientiic. leadership. at. broad. geographic. scales..
Staff.of.the.LCCs.will.work.with.other.agency.and.conservation.partners.to.plan,.
design,. and. evaluate. landscape-scale. conservation,. in. the. face. of. climate. change.
and.other.stressors..The.goals.of.the.FWS.Strategic.and.Action.climate.change.plans.
were.reinforced.under.Secretarial.Order.3289,.issued.on.September.14,.2009,.tasking.
the.newly.proposed.DOI.Regional.Climate.Change.Response.Centers.(USGS).and.
the. LCCs. with. developing. adaptation. strategies. to. respond. to. climate. change. (US.
Department.of.the.Interior.2009a).
