Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
relatively. large. natural. climatic. variability. from. that. induced. by. greenhouse. gas.
additions,.so.that.projected.“differences”.are.dificult.to.quantify.(ACIA.2005)..A.
third. uncertainty. is. the. poor. accounting. for. extreme-weather. events. that. can. seri-
ously.affect.biotas.directly.(e.g.,.cold.snaps,.icing.events,.or.loods).or.indirectly,.by.
creating.a.spate.of.mass-wasting.events.or.catastrophic.coastal.slumping..The.inal.
concern.with.climate.scenarios.is.that.of.scale..Climate.modeling.averages.potential.
changes. over. broad. areas. so. that. it. will. be. dificult. to. make. accurate. predictions.
that. apply. directly. to. the. regional. and. local. landscapes. in. which. Canadian. parks.
function,. and. that. we. care.about. as.park.managers.. This.lack. of. spatial. resolution.
means,. for. example,. that. the. important. effects. of. elevation,. relief,. and. aspect. on.
bioclimate.are.poorly.accounted.for.in.mountainous.parks,.and.similar.issues.exist.
for.coastal.areas.of.parks.due.to.extra-local.scale.land-sea.interactions..These.factors.
are.partially.responsible.for.the.relatively.low.conidence.modelers.place.on.precipi-
tation.scenarios..Thus,.for.example,.orographic.factors.that.may.triple.precipitation.
amounts.cannot.be.reliably.predicted.due.to.the.poor.horizontal.resolution.of.present.
models.(ACIA.2005).
All. of. these. factors. emphasize. the. central. problem. for. park. managers,. which.
is.uncertainty.around.the.ways.in.which.park.biotas.will.respond. to.rapid.climate.
change..Climate.is.a.key.driver.of.all.ecosystems.at.global,.regional,.and.local.scales..
Climate.affects.biota.directly.through.its.effects.on.physiological.tolerances.and.the.
rate.of.cellular.metabolism,.as.well.as.indirectly.by.inluencing.the.ecological.and.
physiographic. processes. that. drive. ecosystem. composition,. process,. and. function.
(Callaghan.et.al..2005)..Climate.also.interacts.with.many.other.physical.factors.such.
as.photoperiod.to.determine.ecosystem.phenological.processes.(e.g.,.the.timing.of.
leaf-out).or.with.soil.physical.parameters.that.control.the.availability.of.soil.moisture.
and.nutrients,.which.are.key.determinants.of.ecosystem.productivity..It.is.the.inter-
action.of.all.of.these.physical.and.biotic.components.of.arctic.ecosystems.at.a.range.
of. scales. that. complicates. a. simple. prediction. of. potential. ecological. change. for. a.
given.park.(Callaghan.et.al..2005;.Anisimov.et.al..2007).
As. a. result. of. these. uncertainties. around. climate. change. at. regional. and. local.
scales,. and. the. complexities. of. potential. ecosystem. responses,. well-designed. park.
ecological.integrity.monitoring.programs.linked.to.focused.research.will.be.the.key.
to.reducing.uncertainty.by.providing.park.managers.with.timely.information.on.eco-
logical.changes.as.they.evolve.in.northern.national.parks..As.an.important.caveat,.it.
remains.to.be.seen.whether.or.not.PCA.can.design.and.afford.to.implement.monitoring.
that.will.be.suficient.to.anticipate.and.capture.the.most.important.ecological.changes.
PARKS CANADA MANAGEMENT CONTEXT
AND MONITORING APPROACH
Parks. Canada. Agency. (PCA). is. responsible. for. the. protection. and. presentation. of.
signiicant. examples. of. Canada's. natural. and. cultural. heritage,. including. national.
parks,.national.marine.conservation.areas,.and.national.historic.sites.(PCA.2008c)..
More. speciically. in. the. context. of. climate. change,. PCA's. Corporate. Plan. (PCA.
2008a).identiies.that.a.key.strategic.outcome.for.managers.of.national.parks.is.“the.
