Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
TABLE 10.2 (continued)
Summary of Potential Climate-Related Ecological Changes for EI Indicators
in Northern National Parks in Canada
EI Indicator
Key Ecological Issues
Freshwater—Lakes
Regional.shifts.in.plant.and.animal.populations;.invasives
Reduced.lake-ice.duration.and.warmer.air.temperatures.will.affect.
stratiication.and.increase.water.temperature.and.primary.productivity.
(phytoplankton,.macrophytes,.zooplankton,.juvenile.ish).above.the.
thermocline;.possible.reduced.area.for.mature.ish.such.as.lake.trout.and.
grayling
Warmer.water.and.a.longer.ice-free.season,.coupled.with.warmer.soils.and.
deeper.active.layers,.will.increase.rates.of.thermokarst.erosion,.with.related.
effects.on.water.chemistry.(POC,.DOC,.sedimentation).and.lake.productivity.
and.biota
Coastal-Marine
Regional.shifts.in.plant.and.animal.populations;.invasives
Changes.in.sea-ice.extent,.character,.and.phenology,.with.effects.on.
ice-dependent.biota.(polar.bears,.ringed.seals,.walrus)
Change.in.the.rate.of.coastal.erosion.and.dynamics.of.coastal.landform.
processes;.submergence.of.coastal.wetlands.and.estuaries;.changes.in.coastal.
habitats.and.plant.phenology.and.foraging.opportunities.for.migratory.birds
Changes.in.physical.oceanographic.processes.(freshwater.inputs,.currents,.
mixing,.temperature,.deposition).and.effects.on.marine.biota.and.coastal.
seabird.colonies
Glaciers
Localized.changes.in.precipitation.(snow.accumulation).and.air.temperature.
conditions.leading.to.changes.decreases.in.glacier.area,.and.mass.balance
Sources:
. Scott,.D.,.and.R..Sufling.2000..
Climate Change and Canada's National Parks
..Environment.
Canada,.Toronto,.Ontario;.ACIA..2005..
Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impacts
Assessment.
Cambridge. University. Press,. Cambridge,. 1042. pp;. Anisimov,. O.A.,. D.G..
Vaughan,. T.V.. Callaghan,. C.. Furgal,. H.. Marchant,. T.D.. Prowse,. H.. Vilhalmsson,. and. J.E..
Walsh..2007..
Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic) Climate Changes 2007. Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
International Panel on Climate Change
..Eds..M.L..Parry,.O.F..Canziani,.J.P..Palutikof,.P.J..van.
der.Linden,.and.C.E..Hanson,.655-685..Cambridge.University.Publications,.Cambridge.
.
1.. Problems.with.regional-.to.local-scale.predictions.and.applications.of.the.
climate.models.themselves,.and
.
2.. Key.uncertainties.around.the.myriad.ways.in.which.complex.park.ecologi-
cal.systems.will.respond.to.these.climate.changes.
With. regard. to. uncertainties. around. published. climate. change. models. for. the.
north,.irst,.it.is.well.acknowledged.that.there.are.problems.in.modeling.arctic.cli-
mate.systems.that.result.from.our.limited.understanding.of.the.interaction.of.climate.
with.key.surface.processes.(e.g.,.feedback.effects.from.albedo.and/or.surface.rough-
ness. from. vegetation. changes). that. could. signiicantly. affect. the. accuracy. of. sce-
narios.(ACIA.2005;.Chapin.et.al..2005)..Second,.there.is.the.problem.of.separating.
