Geological Hazard Potential at the Baltic Sea and Its Coastal Zone: Examples from the Eastern Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad Area - The Baltic Sea Basin - page 342

(a) permanent during the term of forecast; (b) slowly changing; and (c) rapidly
changing. The “permanent” factors include geological structure and relief; they
determine a possibility and degree of the hazard impact. Slowly changing processes
include modern tectonic movements and stable hydrodynamic regimes. These fac-
tors control the process trend. The rapidly changing factors such as storm events and
hurricanes control the rate of exogenous activities.
The classification of exogenic geological hazard potentials for the coastal zone
of Russia is shown in Table 16.1 . It is important to note that all listed phenomena
can be classified as hazards only if they threaten people's lives, lead to essential
property damage, or threaten natural environment. Stressful or even hazardous situ-
ations can result from an interaction between common natural processes and intense
anthropogenic activities, i.e., on-land and underground constructions, dredging, land
reclamation, construction of oil and gas pipelines, mainly in the areas with a high
population density. For example, coastal erosion formed escarpments on different
heights along all the coasts of the Gulf of Finland during the last 8,000 years. But it
has not become a hazard potential until the rapid growth of population and industry
in the coastal zones.
Although marine hazard can threaten different kinds of marine activities in the
Baltic Sea area and lead to property damages, it is highly improbable that they would
reach the “catastrophic” level and cause a major threat for human lives. On the other
hand, the influence of anthropogenic-generated alteration in erosion-deposition
processes can be harmful for the unique and sensitive Baltic ecosystem.
16.2 Materials and Methods
The Department of Marine and Environmental Geology of A.P. Karpinsky Russian
Research Geological Institute (VSEGEI) has been carrying out seabed mapping
and geological and environmental investigations in the eastern Gulf of Finland
since 1980 (Moskalenko et al. 2004 , Spiridonov et al. 1988 , Spiridonov et al.
2007 ) . During the last decade, several projects were devoted to study coastal
dynamics.
In 2005-2008, VSEGEI together with the Atlantic Branch of P.P. Shirshov
Institute of Oceanology (ABIO RAS) conducted multipurpose investigations within
the project “Up-to-date assessment of mineral-resource potential, control over
geological hazards and establishment of prediction models for the geological envi-
ronment in the Baltic Sea and its coastal zone,” funded by the Federal Agency on
Mineral Resources of the Russian Federation. One of the tasks of the project was
the mapping, analyses, and risk estimation of the geological hazard potential caused
by natural and anthropogenic factors and their interaction for the Russian part of the
Baltic Sea (Fig. 16.1 ) .
Within nine key areas in the Kaliningrad region and the eastern Gulf of Finland,
combined on-land and nearshore zone investigations were carried out. Repeated
onshore observations included detailed description and mapping of the coast,