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Socioeconomic chage
Vulnerability
Hazard
Risk
Climate change
Fig. 3.5
Schematic relation between risk, hazard and vulnerability. Changes of hazard as well as
vulnerability (caused by socioeconomic development) may abate or boost the risk
It indicates that, in Austria, the socioeconomic development is probably more
responsible for increasing losses than effects of climate change.
In terms of sustainability and risk management strategies, it is necessary to quan-
tify not only the absolute monetary losses, but also the consequences of these losses
for the community, which are strongly related to the stage of development of the
community. An example is given below.
As a consequence of the ruined potato crop in Ireland 1845-1848, more than
one million persons starved and nearly two million persons were forced by their
government to emigrate to America or Australia. These extreme effects on a com-
munity came along with comparatively marginal monetary losses (loss of potato
crop). Nowadays, highly developed countries are able to overcome enormous
monetary losses caused by natural disasters: e.g. Hurricane Katrina caused dam-
ages of US$138.000 million in total. Nearly 50% of this sum was covered by
insurances (Munich Re,
2008
), so detrimental effects on the society have been
comparatively low.
The GDP (gross domestic product) is a very common parameter of describing
effects of losses caused by natural disasters for countries. Investigations of the
WIFO (
2008
) have shown that the big flood disasters in Austria in 2005 (mone-
tary losses of about C500 million) have not influenced the GDP importantly. Two
facts are responsible for this - in the first moment - incomprehensible result: Soon
after the disaster, positive (!) effects to the GDP activated by capital investments
for rebuilding projects became operative. These positive effects have been more
than balanced out by decreasing private consumption in the following years. The
other important factor leading to the WIFO result is that the GDP contains current
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