Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
19.6
Conclusions
This study shows that climate change is likely to affect agri-
culture in Norway. The effect on yield per decare varied with
geography and crop. There was a positive yield response to
temperature increases in most parts of Norway, with the excep-
tion of Eastern Norway. Furthermore, there were indications of
a North-South gradient, in the sense that the climate change
effects grew stronger as we moved from south to north. This
finding suggests that growing season temperature was more
important as a growth-limiting factor in colder regions (i.e.
Northern and Western Norway) than in warmer regions. In
terms of crops, the strongest effect was evident for potatoes.
Barley yields, and in particular oats and wheat yields, were
less responsive to changes in temperature. There was a nega-
tive yield response to increased precipitation in many parts
of Norway, particularly in the west, and in Trøndelag and
Nordland. This negative effect could be caused by excess soil
moisture, which can be harmful to plant growth, or be related
to reduced incoming sunlight due to the link between increased
precipitation and cloud cover. Western Norway has the highest
precipitation rate in the country. Therefore, additional precipi-
tation may do crops more harm than good. This negative effect
is most pronounced for barley, sometimes apparent for potatoes,
but occurs more rarely for oats and wheat. On the other hand,
there have been instances where increased precipitation has had
a positive effect on productivity, though this has been restricted
to potato crops. Indeed, building on the RegClim scenario for
2040, there were robust predictions for increased potato yields
in Northern Norway by around 30%, and for some sub-periods
in Aust-Agder and Vest-Agder by around 25%. Through adap-
tation, the negative effects of climate change could be reduced
and the positive effects enhanced. Examples of potential adap-
tive measures include the introduction of new crops and crop
variants, earlier sowing, ditching to drain more water from the
soil and the utilisation of land that has previously been consid-
ered too marginal for agricultural cultivation.
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Research
Council of Norway. We also thank NIJOS (Norwegian Institute
of Land Inventory) for providing us with a digital map of
Norwegian agricultural resources.
