Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
table 19.3
Yield predictions for potatoes in the RegClim scenario
Predicted%
change in
yield
Predicted % change in yield
under RegClim scenario
Estimated
yield from
model
County
Period
GDD (%)
Precipitation (%)
Net effect (%)
Aust-Agder
P3
2830
26
26
Vest-Agder
P1
2375
24
24
Nordland
All
2165
32
−2
30
Troms
All
1987
33
33
Finnmark
All
2285
35
35
decare. If adaptation is taken into account, however, it may well
be the case that this figure turns out to be an underestimate, as
farmers may choose to dedicate more resources to potato culti-
vation as climate change improves productivity.
19.5
Further analysis
The estimated (significant) GDD and precipitation coefficients
could be used as inputs to estimation of climate change damage
functions for the agricultural sector in a cost-benefit economic
modelling framework. In terms of expanding the model, impor-
tant crop yield variables such as sunlight (e.g. using cloud cover as
a proxy), fertiliser use and soil quality could be included. Owing
to limited data availability, such factors could not be incorporated
in this study. Where such data did exist, it was either restricted
geographically (e.g. only collected at local sites or at national
level) or temporally (only available for limited time periods).
Furthermore, the chosen statistical model limited the type of data
that could be incorporated. An alternative could be to use a crop
model, where a more extensive set of relevant plant growth vari-
ables could be introduced. However, this approach, together with
limited data availability, would limit the representativeness of the
results, and lead to difficulties when trying to aggregate findings
to the county level. On the other hand, one could choose an eco-
nomic model that represents larger regions, but that would limit
the model's ability to account for weather variables that are deci-
sive for yield per decare, see, for example, Ref. [5]. The model
approach employed in the study could be transferred to other
weather-dependent production activities in the primary sectors,
for example, other crops, and in forestry. And the same modelling
could be used for similar studies in other Scandinavian countries.
