Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
will reduce by 4% with a 10% decline in daily rainfall, doubling
CO
2
and a 3°C temperature rise (Lal et al., 1999). The produc-
tion of maize and jowar also will decline with an increase in
temperature (Kalra et al., 2007). The effects of temperature and
CO
2
on other crops are listed in Table 1.4. Losses for other crops
are still uncertain, but they are expected to be relatively smaller,
especially for kharif crops (Ninan and Bedamatta, 2012). There
is an increasing effect of climate change on Indian agriculture
in spite of the possible advances made through technology and
the country's overall development (Kavi Kumar, 2009). This
warrants further systematic studies to understand the impact
of future climate change on India as the agricultural sector is
extremely sensitive to climate variability.
1.5
Adjustment
It is certain that in an event of any climate change, agriculture
will adjust to meet these changes, which is likely with a spatial
shift of crop potential. Areas under today's climatic conditions
suited for a crop or combination of crops may no longer be suit-
able after a climatic shift, or otherwise, an area today not suit-
able for growing particular crop(s), may be suitable tomorrow
(Chakravarty and Mallick, 2003). Maize growing successfully
in South England at present may shift northward with a rise
in temperature, wheat will shift eastward in the United States
(Decker et al., 1985), north and southward in India and maize
northward in the United States (Newman, 1980). Similar north-
ward shifts are projected for sunflower in the UK (Parry et al.,
1989), citrus, olives and vines in southern Europe (Imeson
et al., 1987), while a southward shift of land use is projected
in the Southern Hemisphere (Salinger, 1988). This might also
expand successful commercial production of mangoes, papa-
yas, litchis, bananas, pineapples and other fruits from sub-trop-
ical and tropical to temperate areas (Chakravarty and Mallick,
2003).
Changes in climate would influence agriculture by chang-
ing the length of the growing season, crop yield, agricultural
potential and shifting the geographical area (Hogg, 1992).
Many crops can adjust to possible climate change. However,
the magnitude of the projected climate will shift northward as
change will vary from location to location and the influence
will be a function of the change in climate to the existing condi-
tion (Chakravarty and Mallick, 2003). So at mid latitudes, agri-
cultural potential would decrease toward poles due to smaller
