Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions because
there is less time for optimum natural selection and adaption
(Mendelsohn and Schlesinger, 1999; Chakravarty and Mallick,
2003). The overall effect of climate change on agriculture will
depend on the balance of these effects. An assessment of the
effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to
properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximise agricultural
production.
On India
Indian agriculture is more vulnerable to cli-
mate change as it is economically associated, where poverty
is strongly related with the agricultural performance of the
country (Ninan and Bedamatta, 2012). Future crop production
losses of 10-40% are associated with an increase in tempera-
ture from 2080 to 2100 (Parry et al., 1992; Aggarwal and Kalra,
1994; Dinar et al., 1998; Kavi Kumar and Parikh, 2001a,b;
Anonymous, 2007a; Kavi Kumar, 2009). The projected impact
of climate change on agriculture varies across regions because
India has an immense climatic/geographic diversity (Kavi
Kumar, 2007; Ninan and Bedamatta, 2012). In the arid regions,
even small increases in temperature will decline agricultural
production, but the same rate of increase in the Himalayas will
increase agricultural production (Anonymous, 2009a). Studies
conducted with the Ricardian approach projected an increase
of 2.0-3.5°C with less rainfall will result in a 3-26% loss of
net agricultural revenue (Sanghi et al., 1998; Kavi Kumar and
Parikh, 1998, 2001a,b; Kavi Kumar, 2007, 2009). Increasing
climatic variability associated with global warming, neverthe-
less, will result in considerable seasonal/annual fluctuations in
food production (Mall et al., 2006).
Rice production in many parts of India projected between
2010 and 2070 would increase by 26% in an optimistic and
9-30% in a pessimistic scenario (Aggarwal and Mall, 2002;
Kalra et al., 2007). In Kerala, rice production will decrease by
6% with a 1.5°C temperature rise (Saseendran et al., 2000). Rice
and wheat production in north-western India will not be affected
by the doubling of CO
2
and temperature increases of 2-3°C, but
will decrease by 20% with water shortages (Lal et al., 1998).
Every 1°C temperature rise during the growing period will
result in loss of 4-5 million tonnes in future wheat production
(Kalra et al., 2007). Haryana, Punjab, western Uttar Pradesh
and coastal Tamil Nadu will have negative effects on wheat pro-
duction, but eastern districts of West Bengal and parts of Bihar
will have benefits from projected climate change (Kavi Kumar
and Parikh, 2001a). Soya bean production in Madhya Pradesh
