Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
The GCM predictions are only about the average changes
in future climate. It is unable to show changes in the frequency
and intensity of hurricanes, frequency of floods or the intensity
of monsoons. It is still uncertain how climate variability will
vary as a consequence of GHGs. The other types of errors could
be due to the weakness of the GCMs in representing physical
processes in the atmosphere relating to clouds. Yet, another
cause of inaccuracy is the fact that the equilibrium runs assum-
ing instantaneous doubling of CO
2
and subsequent equilibrium
state which might not occur in reality. Hence, the predictions
based on such assumptions could be quite uncertain.
15.12
Mitigation of climate change
The atmospheric levels of GHGs such as CO
2
, CH
4
, N
2
O, O
3
and CFCs are increasing with rapid industrialisation, intensive
agricultural and related activities. The levels of CO
2
, the most
important GHG, are expected to increase by 3.5°C in the next
50 years. The more buildup of these gas levels would increase
the temperature of the Earth and effect climatic changes. If
there is an increase of 0.5°C in the mean temperature in Punjab,
Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, it would reduce the productivity of
wheat crop by 10%. Changes in rainfall patterns will enforce
land use changes and alter bio-diversity and whole ecology. If
the current rate of fossil fuel burning continues, which is the
main source of atmospheric CO
2
, we must look for alternative
sources of renewable energy.
The overall levels of production can be maintained through
a combination of shifts in agricultural zones and adjustments
in technology and management. Every effort should be made
to arrest deforestation and promote upgrading of degraded
land through agro-forestry and other appropriate forms of land
use. This will help to increase carbon fixation on the Earth.
Establishment of crop-weather watch groups, special groups
consisting of meteorologists, agricultural research and exten-
sion workers, developmental administrators and mass media
representatives, should be established in every agro-ecological
region of the country to continuously monitor the weather sit-
uation and analyse its implications for crop growth and pest
incidence. Such crop-weather watch groups can benefit at the
national level from the World Climate Programme of WMO
and early warning system of FAO. This will help to equip
farmers and fishermen with location-specific information to
increase their preparedness for floods, tropical cyclones and
