Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
estimated a response time of 5-15 years for items such as pro-
ductive life of farm assets, crop rotation cycles and recovery
from major disasters. Within broad categories of responses,
some of which could be beneficial regardless of how or whether
climate changes include
•
Improved training and general education of populations
dependent on agriculture
•
Identification of the present vulnerabilities of agricultural
systems
•
Agricultural research to develop new crop varieties
•
Food programmes and other social security programmes
to provide insurance against supply changes
•
Transportation, distribution and market integration to
provide the infrastructure to supply food during crop
shortfalls
•
Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting changes in
prices, mask the climate change signal in the market
This analysis consists of four parts:
•
A macro-level vulnerability analysis, based on GIS
•
A domestic policy analysis
•
A micro-level analysis (including village-level case stud-
ies in four different agricultural regions)
•
Integrated analyses that will synthesise the preceding
work and offer policy recommendations for facilitating
adaptation in the agricultural sector
This will illustrate the results from the macro-level analy-
sis, which involves the mapping of vulnerability profiles. These
profiles are based on indicators that directly or indirectly repre-
sent sources of vulnerability. The indicators are combined and
weighted to create composite indexes that illustrate how vulner-
ability varies spatially. A base vulnerability index for India has
already been developed by some researchers, using indicators
that reflect social, biophysical and technological vulnerability.
The base vulnerability layer is overlaid with either a climate sen-
sitivity index/layer, based on climate norms from 1961 to l990,
or a trade sensitivity index/layer. From these maps, districts that
have both high climate and economic globalisation vulnerabili-
ties (i.e. are doubly exposed) are identified. Villages for the case
studies are selected from these highly vulnerable districts. The
macro-level analysis should also include climate scenario data,
thus capturing the dynamic aspect of vulnerability.
