Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
South-East Asia. Some researchers presented a climate change
scenario for the Indian subcontinent, taking projected emis-
sions of GHGs and sulphate aerosols into account. It predicts an
increase in the annual mean maximum and minimum surface
air temperatures of 0.7°C and l.0°C over land in the 2040s with
respect to the 1980s. Since the warming over land is projected
to be lower in magnitude than that over the adjoining ocean, the
land-sea thermal contrast that drives the monsoon mechanism
could possibly decline. However, there continues to be consider-
able uncertainty about the impacts of aerosols on the monsoon.
15.11
Vulnerability assessment in Indian agriculture
These changes will arguably alter India's vulnerability, creat-
ing a different set of winners and losers in the climate change
game. The multifaceted approach of some research attempts to
capture the differing sources of vulnerability by incorporating
the concept of 'double exposure', which refers 'to the fact that
certain regions, sectors, ecosystems and social groups will be
confronted by the impacts of climate change and by the con-
sequences of globalisation'. Another key component of this
study is the recognition that climate change and globalisation
are dynamic processes. Accordingly, one may assume that the
impacts of the global process will change over time as well,
altering the location, type and severity of vulnerability.
To get into the realm of this aspect, we need to look into the
following components:
•
Recent environment changes its impact on Indian
agriculture
•
Technological advancement
•
Ecological impact
The adaptation options are possible at various levels, that
is, farmers, economic agents and macro-level policy issues.
The potential and costs of adaptation will be possibly through
historic analysis of technology penetration. For example, the
relative adoption speed of various measures such as adapta-
tion measure, adjustment time (years), variety adoption, 3-14
dams and irrigation, 50-100 variety development, 8-15 tillage
systems, 10-12 opening new lands, 3-10 irrigation equipment,
20-25 fertiliser adoption and so on are of significant impor-
tance. There were observations of adoption and technologi-
cal responses in post-independent Indian agriculture, which
