Urban Systems As Place-Based Foci For Infrastructure Interactions - Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities - page 52

BOX 2
Economic Approaches to Population Migration
and Infrastructure Risk Assessment

Much of the risk associated with infrastructure
vulnerabilities is linked to populations who are
seeking different economic opportunities and
with portions of existing networks that are aban-
doned in favor of newly constructed infrastruc-
ture networks. Some of these drivers are the ate
to other areas. The “unaffected” population and
industries in the areas may generate increased de-
mand for transportation to provide the goods no
longer locally produced. A description of this risk
associated with climate-induced drought condi-
tions between 2010 and 2050 is found in Backus,
2010. The analysis simulates the U.S. economy
across individual states and 70 industry catego-
ries that encompass all economic activity.
The analysis shows that some states are more
affected than others. The Southwest experiences
drought conditions in almost all cases. Companies
and laborers migrate from more distressed states
to relatively less affected states, such as Califor-
nia. Although an analysis of California in isola-
tion would show negative impacts from climate
change, the net economic impacts are positive.
Similarly, areas like New Mexico and Arizona are
relatively resilient to drought due to their already
arid environment. The impacts there are less than
what might be expected given the larger changes

in water availability. On the other hand, areas of
the Southeast already have the demand and sup-
ply for water at comparable values with minimal
capacity to accommodate significant changes in
supply. Relatively modest climate impacts have
correspondingly larger economic impacts. The re-
sult could be migration from the Southeast to the
Northeast, where a similar water balance exists,
but the climate has less impact on water supply.
The total risk across all the states, over the 40
years, was estimated at a litle over $1 trillion, with
a job loss of approximately 7 million labor-years.
Although the information is shown at a state
level, it is the businesses within each state that
largely experience the impacts. Impacts on the
population are largely through the industry im-
pacts. While this total risk through 2050 is a small
fraction of the economy, the analysis illustrates
how an integrated risk assessment that includes
population migration and the changing demand
for infrastructure services can inform decisions
about climate adaptation and accommodating cli-
mate impacts. It also highlights how the impact
from uncertain climate conditions will only add
to this value, and that the much more significant
changes in climate beyond 2050 represent a much
larger risk.

in Miami-Dade will likely result in longer restoration times as resources are diverted to
less-damaged circuits serving greater numbers of customers to the west. Miami-Dade
customers will likely endure outages that extend closer to 26 days than to 22 days.
Power outages impair hospital operations through essential systems, such as life sup-
port equipment, computerized medical records, and laboratory operations. In addition,
pharmaceutical products and food will require ice shipments to replace loss of refrig-
eration. Most hospitals have backup generators; these generators require re-fueling de-
pendent on inundated surface routes. Eastern roadways will suffer temporary flooding
of over four feet of water.