Urban Systems As Place-Based Foci For Infrastructure Interactions - Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities - page 51

Figure 13 Historic migration trends into the Miami area (dark) could be reversed in the event of disrup-
tive extreme weather events in Miami (light)
from New York state and Los Angeles to alternative destinations, perhaps outside of
the state of Florida. The potential reach of impacts can inform efforts to coordinate local
area responses to include areas geographically distant from those directly impacted by
environmental shocks, but indirectly affected through social relationships, as shown by
migration streams such as those hypothesized by Curtis and Schneider, 2011.
Using these changes we can forecast the trends of vulnerability to the hypothetical
hurricane event before and after the anticipated sea level rise, taking into account the
regional convergence created by land use and other driving forces in South Florida. Box
2 considers possible approaches for estimating economic costs of such interdependent
infrastructures and their impact on risk assessments.
During the hurricane event, wind and rain impairs adjacent distribution power lines,
resulting in power outages. Increased precipitation could also affect many substations
and generating plants in the Miami area, along with assets inland. If these facilities are
flooded, individual component sustain damage. A three-foot or greater inundation of a
typical substation renders a substation out of service
Before sea-level -rise, Miami-Dade and Broward counties on the east side and Collier
and Monroe counties on the west side of southern Florida and the Keys will experience
near complete power outages. About 4.6 million people live in the area where electric
power damage is expected to be 100 percent. Approximately 90 percent of outaged cus-
tomers would have power restored in less than 26 days and 80 percent in less than 22
days, depending substantially on storm surge effects. After sea-level rise, substations
will be built to accommodate greater populations on the west coast. The power outages