Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Technology research and development to support energy assessments and actions
• Improved IT systems, including monitoring and control systems to increase
information and support lexible responses to disruptive events
• Strategies and technologies to increase resilience and lexibility in electricity
supply systems: e.g., greater tolerance for heating, more lexible and smart grids,
more distributed generation
• Technologies and policies for electricity peak-shaving
• Materials to cope with new operating conditions, such as heat and ocean
acidiication
ANALYTICAL TOOLS
• Risk management science: risk-based scaling/framing/scoping capabilities,
especially given uncertainties that surround large investments for long-term
structures
• Improving concepts and tools for modeling integration
B. Gaps In Knowledge
Among these needs for knowledge, several seem to stand out as especially glaring gaps
in what we know now as a basis for risk management:
• Relatively ine-grained climate change projections, especially for the next 20-30
years - e.g., wind regimes for windpower, regional droughts and heat waves
• Improved IT systems, including monitoring and control systems to increase
information and support lexible responses to disruptive events
• Resilience to extreme events, including interdependencies that can produce
major cascading consequences (see NCA technical input report on Climate
Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities)
• Beter understanding of coupled systems that include ecological, human-
behavior, and technological feedbacks
• Treatments of variance, extremes, and uncertainties: e.g., probabilistic methods,
uncertainty quantiication
• Non-linearities and tipping points/thresholds as well as performance degrada-
tion leading up to abrupt changes
• Risk management science: risk-based scaling/framing/scoping capabilities,
especially given uncertainties that surround large investments for long-term
structures
C. An Example of a Need for Improved Capacities
While the ability to forecast future climate impacts with spatial and temporal accuracy is
still limited, there have been signiicant improvements in recent years in understanding
speciic renewable energy technology vulnerabilities to climate change and the technical
