Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 5
Knowledge, Uncertainties,
And Research Gaps
In a sector that has not been the focus of signiicant climate change risk and impact re-
search, the knowledge gaps and uncertainties are profound and virtually unbounded.
But participants in the preparation of this study, including the expert workshop, and
several previous assessments (SAP 4.5; IPCC, 2007; NRC, 2010; Wilbanks, 2010), sug-
gest that the following needs are at least illustrative of a number of high priorities for
research, tool development, and learning.
A. The Landscape of Needs for Knowledge
In order to support assessments with a high level of conidence of implications of climate
change for energy supply and use, there is broad agreement about the kinds of knowl-
edge that are needed: knowledge to support response actions, fundamental knowledge
to strengthen foundations for more applied studies, technology alternatives not only to
support actions but to support capacities for decision-making, and improved tools for
analysis. Needs that have been identiied include:
ACTION-ORIENTED KNOWLEDGE
• Relatively ine-grained climate change projections, especially for the next 20-30
years - e.g., wind regimes for windpower, regional droughts and heat waves
• Improved information about regional implications of water scarcity, along with
alternative adaptive responses
• Improved understanding of sensitivities of renewable energy supply systems to
changes in climate parameters
• Linkages between energy system adaptation and mitigation
• Contingency planning for vulnerable areas
FUNDAMENTAL KNOWLEDGE
• Implications of extreme events for energy system resilience
• Beter understanding of coupled systems that include ecological, human-
behavior, and technological feedbacks
• Treatments of variance, extremes, and uncertainties: e.g., probabilistic methods,
uncertainty quantiication
• Non-linearities and tipping points/thresholds as well as performance degrada-
tion leading up to abrupt changes
