Climate Change Implications For US Energy Supply And Use - Climate Change and Energy Supply and Use - page 20

Wave
Regime

Erosion of Ice-
Bound sediments

Permafrost Thaw

Altered Precipitation
Patterns

Ice Sheet and
Glacial Decline

Increased Atmospheric
Te mperature

Increased
Evaporation

Soil Moisture
and Runoff

Sea Level Rise

Increased
Ocean Te mperature

Increased
Estuarine and Aquatic
Te mperature

Fire Frequency
and Intensity

Shoreline
Retreat

Dissolved
Oxygen

Tropical Storm
Intensity

Nutrient and Freshwater
Delivery to the Coast

Disturbance or
Inundation of
Coastal Lowlands

Salinity Regime

Figure 2 A conceptual model of the interactions among physical climate change drivers affecting the
coastal zone (Burkett 2011)

severity of polar bear encounters, coastal erosion and storm surges, and changes in per-
mafrost which could impact piling design.
In a second case, Burket (2011) analyzed climate change implications for coastal and
ofshore oil and gas development. The study identiies six key climate change drivers
with the potential to both independently and cumulatively afect coastal and ofshore oil
and gas exploration, production, and transportation: changes in carbon dioxide levels
and ocean acidity, air and water temperatures (especially in the Arctic), precipitation
paterns and runof (with potentials to cause diiculties in using coastal wetlands), the
rate of sea-level rise, storm intensity, and wave regimes (threatening production plat-
forms, bridge decks and supports, and pipelines). Figure 2 indicates interactions among
physical climate change drivers afecting the coastal zone, many of which are already
showing impacts of climate change. Other issues include efects of temperature increas-
es and precipitation changes on oil and gas operations, especially water needs, where
location maters a great deal in determining the degree of possible impact.
One way to view the importance of location for oil and gas sector vulnerabilities
(suggested by Russell Jones) is to consider how the parts of the U.S. that are considered
at greatest risk of temperature increases and precipitation changes (Figures 3 and 4 )
relate to paterns of oil and gas production. Overlaying these areas on the regions most