Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 1.8 Emissions of CO
2
in relation with GDP (kg/$2005 PPP) and population (tons/pop.) in
2005
GDP per capita
in $2005 PPP
Level of income
per capita
CO
2
kg/GDP ($2005 PPP)
CO
2
tons/population
2005
2005
<995
Low
0.28
0.28
996
-
3,945
Lower middle
0.73
2.79
3,946
12,195
Upper middle
-
0.48
5.26
12,196 and >
High
0.37
12.49
World
0.49
4.63
Source World Bank (
2011
)
concentration of gases in the atmosphere (as in the Kyoto protocol, enforced on
February 16th 2005) imply heavy consequences for the economy in the short term
(and people are always more interested in the immediate negative effects on the
economy rather than in the long-run positive effects on future mankind). The rise of
new non polluting sources of energy is slower than it was hoped at the end of the
past century.
While in a
rst phase of the industrialisation the CO
2
increased emissions could
have played a positive role in agriculture, contributing to the fertilisation of the
soils, since carbon dioxide makes crops grow faster, there is no doubt that in more
recent decades the negative effects were much heavier than the positive. Although a
precise quanti
cation of the social and economic costs is hard to provide, a likely
estimate for the beginning of the new millennium is in the order of $20 per ton of
carbon dioxide emitted in the atmosphere.
20
This cost would correspond to
something like 0.5
5 % of GDP in advanced economic regions.
-
1.4.8 The Future of Energy
Forecasts of energy consumption always prove to be inaccurate.
21
Some general
remarks on future developments are, however, possible. Humans have lived in
organic economies since the birth of the human species, some 7
5 million years
ago, until today. If humans continue to live and reproduce on the face of the Earth
and enjoy the same levels of wealth we enjoy today or if they aim at increasing this
wealth, our future will no longer be organic. We have seen that in about 2000
-
2010
per capita consumption on a global scale was around 50,000 Calories per day and
that about 12 % was made up of organic vegetable sources
-
—
the old heritage of past
agricultural societies
—
, while 80 % came from organic fossil sources
—
the more
20
Nordhaus (
2011
).
21
As stressed by Smil (
2006
).
