Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
18000
15000
12000
9000
6000
3000
0
Fig. 1.10 World energy consumption (only modern sources) in Mtoe from 1800 until 2010 and
prediction of future energy consumption until 2060 (logistic curve). Source see text. Note the
coef cients of the logistic curve have been estimated through linear regression. The resulting
equation is the following: with y = world consumption of modern sources; a = the lowest value;
K the highest value; b the rate of growth; t time (starting with 1 in 1800)
recent heritage of modern growth. On a global scale, only a relatively narrow
residual amount is represented by photovoltaic, wind, water and nuclear energy.
These are the sources of our non-organic future. Fossil sources are diminishing and
will disappear completely in one or two centuries. It is known that population rise is
stabilizing, but that it will continue to grow for some decades, to reach at least
10 billion in the second half of this century. Per capita product is increasing rapidly
in some countries, once poor, but now fast becoming rich. With a denser and richer
world population, it will not be possible to devote land to the production of organic
fuels or bio-fuels such as ethanol. Neither can we wish for the exploitation of new
organic sources, with the consequences of their use in
icting such damage on the
environment. A plausible trend of energy consumption in the future, drawn in
Fig. 1.10 on the basis of the historical values of energy consumption in the last two
centuries, suggests a relative decline of the rate of growth in the second half of the
21st century.
K
17
000
:
y
¼
ae bt ¼
3500e 0 ; 042t :
1
þ
1
þ
Some environmentalists say that a decarbonisation of the economy is necessary.
It will not only be necessary, but also unavoidable, in the future. More and more
humans will have to learn how to deal with the non organic sources of energy, since
an organic future will not be possible (or desirable). An alternative development is
to return to the means of our ancestors of 3
4 centuries ago, when on a global scale,
per capita consumption was one-tenth of that existing today. This means not only
much less Carbon dioxide in the air, but also a smaller population and a much lower
standard of living; which ultimately relies on the capacity to carry out useful work
and then on energy.
-
Search WWH ::




Custom Search