Historical Context and Overview - Deadly Cultures: Biological Weapons Since 1945 - page 8

have states demonstrated to other states that they have truly terminated
their BW programs? Imbuing these issues are four recurrent themes:
• Changing perceptions of biological weapons, and of their utility or
disutility
• The limitations of intelligence
• The shifting balance between secrecy and transparency, suspicion and
confidence
• The influence of treaties and of international technological collaboration
upon national BW programs
Our final chapter summarizes the history of BW since 1945 and offers
some lessons for the future. We make no claim that these lessons are
complete or comprehensive. Because our history is incomplete, drawing
as it does upon incomplete source material (especially for contemporary
events), the lessons we draw are also necessarily limited. Nevertheless
they possess value, and should greatly enrich current policy debates. Al-
though awareness of history does not guarantee that we will avoid re-
peating mistakes, ignorance virtually assures repetition.
We live in a time in which the basic knowledge needed to develop BW
is more widely available than ever before, perhaps even to the point of al-
lowing individuals or terrorist organizations to construct effective BW.
The importance of preventing biological warfare, terrorism, or criminality
is more acute now than when the two major powers of the Cold War had
lavish offensive BW programs. The problem is serious, and lessons from
history are urgently needed.