GNSS Markets and Applications - Understanding GPS: Principles and Applications - page 640

Once the determination of the addressable market is firm, the sales and market-
ing people will agree on the achievable market. This is a very important goal because
it establishes the sales forecast from which all budgeting in a corporation begins.
Much activity, employment, and capital expenditures are driven by this forecast,
which in fact is really a guess as to how many sales can be made from a market defi-
nition that is fuzzy at best. Yet that is the best data from which to start. Fortunately,
there is history and competitive information that lends credence to such a forecast.
Forecasting in the military is much simpler, although not built up with any more
confidence. The data provided by government budgets provide a starting point that
in general is fairly accurate, at least in the short term. Budgets traditionally cover
five or more years so the military GPS equipment forecast is available to a potential
supplier. In the United States, Congress and defense priorities often change these
forecasts but usually not more often than annually. Projects and procurements span
several years, so there is a built-in inertia that keeps the forecast somewhat stable.

12.1.3 Market Limitations, Competitive Systems, and Policy
GNSS market growth is highly dependent on U.S. and EU government actions and
policy. Some possible changes are:

• The return of SA or possible fees for use of GPS. Both seem highly unlikely to
occur.

Time to deploy new signals , including L2C and L5 for GPS and all of the
GALILEO signals. The overall schedules for both of these capabilities are
likely to slip to the right as most such endeavors usually do.

•

Export rule changes and regulatory demands. While U.S. export limits on GPS
may never be any more stringent; the use of GALILEO receivers or hybrid
GPS/GALILEO receivers could be mandated for use in Europe. There could
also be charges in the form of tariffs or royalties imposed on these receivers,
thus limiting the market for them, although recent U.S. /EU agreements would
militate against that.

•

E-911 mandate and its equivalent in Europe , which should actually increase
the market worldwide as it has done in the United States.

•

In late 2004, President Bush of the United States issued a new policy on
space-based positioning, navigation, and timing. It created a new National
Space-Based Position, Navigation, and Timing Executive Committee and dissolved
the existing IGEB created under the Clinton administration.
The policy stressed the military value of GPS to the United States by mentioning
the importance of navigation warfare training, testing, and exercises in several
places. However, it also maintained the commitment to discontinue the use of SA.
The GNSS market can only expand as nascent satellite navigation systems
mature. Besides GALILEO, there could be a GLONASS renaissance as well as the
fielding of GAGAN from India, BeiDou from China, and MTSAT from Japan.
While some of this added market potential will be related to SBAS applications,
there also could be new combined receiver products business for many of the
world's chipmakers and receiver suppliers.